Bear Market Trader | Daily take on WTI crude oil
My daily take on the WTI crude oil market.
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Daily take on WTI crude oil

Daily take on WTI crude oil


This is my dai­ly take on the WTI crude oil mar­ket. I will keep these post short and to the point. The pur­pose of these posts is for me to set up my bias for the day and look for sig­nals to start tak­ing positions.


Graph­i­cal data is from and Meta­trad­er 4.




Click here for my dis­claimer. It basi­cal­ly says that I am on my path to becom­ing a trad­er and these are just my opin­ions on how to approach learn­ing to trade. Feel free to check it out and com­ment on it.

Here it goes…


WTI has pos­i­tive and neg­a­tive cor­re­la­tions to oth­er finan­cial instru­ments and I will list these here to show the rea­son for my bias. I have three cat­e­gories: Down­ward, neu­tral and upward pres­sure. Down­ward pres­sure means that the items list­ed have a neg­a­tive effect on WTI crude oil and is cause for a short-bias and vice versa.



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On this is last­ed so I thought to include this in my dai­ly take. I will have a deep­er look lat­er on. 


Here we can see the tech­ni­cal chart pro­vid­ed by Here we can see that we are still in the upper part of the 52wk range and we opened at the top of the dai­ly range. How­ev­er dropped slight­ly since then, but haven’t touched pre­vi­ous dai­ly lows. 

The pos­i­tive cor­re­lat­ed finan­cial mar­kets look a lit­tle bull­ish or inde­ci­sive. It is almost noon in Asia so we’ll have to see how this devel­ops lat­er in the day. 

The neg­a­tive cor­re­lat­ed ones is in the red mean­ing upward pres­sure on crude oil. After tak­ing account of these ‘fac­tors’ that are sup­posed to be relat­ed to crude oil, I will make my per­son­al con­clu­sion if there actu­al­ly is a cor­re­la­tion or if it actu­al­ly mat­ters to the way I am trading. 


News – Crude oil prices set­tled low­er on Wednes­day as ris­ing crude sup­plies and a surge in U.S. pro­duc­tion off­set data show­ing gaso­line sup­plies fell more-than-expected

Crude oil prices fell for the first time in three days as con­cerns over a surge in US pro­duc­tion weighed on upside momen­tum while a mixed report from the Ener­gy Infor­ma­tion Admin­is­tra­tion (EIA) show­ing crude stock­piles rose for the first time in five weeks and gaso­line sup­plies fell more-than-expect­ed failed to lift sentiment.

Inven­to­ries of U.S. crude rose by rough­ly 856,000 bar­rels in the week end­ed Oct. 20, miss­ing expec­ta­tions of a draw of 2.6m barrels.

Gaso­line inven­to­ries – one of the prod­ucts that crude is refined into – fell by 5.5m bar­rels, con­found­ing expec­ta­tions of a draw of just 17,000 bar­rels while sup­plies of dis­til­late – the class of fuels that includes diesel and heat­ing oil fell by about 5.3m bar­rels, top­ping expec­ta­tions of a decline of 860,000 barrels.

“At the end of the day, crude oil demand is only one part of the equa­tion. If you have strong prod­ucts demand, that means refiner­ies are going to buy more crude oil to cre­ate those prod­ucts. Demand looks great,” said Michael Loewen, a com­modi­ties strate­gist at Sco­tia­bank in Toronto.


Source: — Crude oil price fell in Asia on Thurs­day as week­ly data con­firmed a sur­prise build in U.S. inven­to­ries and investors mulled demand prospects globally.

Chi­na, the world’s sec­ond largest crude importer, unveiled its lead­er­ship team on Wednes­day and sig­naled it aims to improve qual­i­ty of life and trim back rapid export-ori­ent­ed indus­tri­al­iza­tion in favor of domes­tic con­sump­tion. The switch, expect­ed to accel­er­ate in the next five years in Chi­na has poten­tial neg­a­tive impli­ca­tions for crude oil demand.




TOKYO (Reuters) — Asian stocks bare­ly changed on Thurs­day, capped as Wall Street shares pulled back from record highs, while the euro stretched gains ahead of a Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank meet­ing that could take a major step away from its accom­moda­tive policy

MSCI’s broad­est index of Asia-Pacif­ic shares out­side Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) was flat. Aus­tralian stocks (AXJO) and South Kore­a’s KOSPI (KS11) both inched down 0.1 percent.

Japan’s Nikkei (N225), which had its 16-day win­ning run snapped the pre­vi­ous day, shrugged off Wall Street weak­ness and rose 0.2 per­cent, lift­ed by shares backed by strong earnings.

Shang­hai stocks (SSEC) were up 0.4 per­cent. Tai­wan (TWOII) was flat.

U.S. stocks fell on Wednes­day on a batch of soft quar­ter­ly earn­ings, with the Dow Jones Indus­tri­al Aver­age (DJI) suf­fer­ing its worst day in sev­en weeks after ris­ing to a record peak the pre­vi­ous ses­sion. (N)

In cur­ren­cy mar­kets, the euro added to overnight gains to reach a six-day high of $1.1833 , accom­pa­ny­ing a rise by the Ger­man 10-year bund yield to a three-week top of 0.50 percent

The dol­lar index against a bas­ket of six cur­ren­cies was down 0.15 per­cent at 93.565 (DXY), its low­est in six days.




Technical Analysis




Yes­ter­day was inter­est­ing to see that we start­ed a decline to the 52 dol­lar lev­el. I believe this to be a cru­cial point for us to see if the under­ly­ing fun­da­men­tals will actu­al­ly push us fur­ther down which is good for the one short posi­tion I still have open that is los­ing at the moment. On the oth­er side it would be bad for the long posi­tions I opened think­ing the bounce back would retest the 52.40 lev­el again. I’ll keep all open and see how they play out. My strat­e­gy here is yes we do need to wait for con­fir­ma­tion. But we can very well see a return to the 52.30 mark before head­ing fur­ther down. That is where I put my stops for the long posi­tions incur­ring some loss­es. This I believe is OK since I have made more yes­ter­day in prof­its than I would stand to lose on them. 


If we break out to the down­side I would say we are look­ing at a move towards the 51.50 lev­el via a short stop at the 51.80. If we head back up we will mere­ly retest the 52.30 lev­els. I think it is more like­ly for us to see a fur­ther drop. But in the crude oil mar­ket, you sim­ply nev­er know. 


Thank you


Thank you as always for being a part of my jour­ney into becom­ing a trad­er. Please feel free to com­ment or ask ques­tions. Let me know what you think.



Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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