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Bear Market Trader | Daily take on WTI crude oil
My daily take on the WTI crude oil market.

Daily take on WTI crude oil

Daily take on WTI crude oil


This is my dai­ly take on the WTI crude oil mar­ket. I will keep these post short and to the point. The pur­pose of these posts is for me to set up my bias for the day and look for sig­nals to start tak­ing positions.


Graph­i­cal data is from and Meta­trad­er 4.




Click here for my dis­claimer. It basi­cal­ly says that I am on my path to becom­ing a trad­er and these are just my opin­ions on how to approach learn­ing to trade. Feel free to check it out and com­ment on it.

Here it goes…


WTI has pos­i­tive and neg­a­tive cor­re­la­tions to oth­er finan­cial instru­ments and I will list these here to show the rea­son for my bias. I have three cat­e­gories: Down­ward, neu­tral and upward pres­sure. Down­ward pres­sure means that the items list­ed have a neg­a­tive effect on WTI crude oil and is cause for a short-bias and vice versa.



Related Financial Markets


Relat­ed ETFs

On this is last­ed so I thought to include this in my dai­ly take. I will have a deep­er look lat­er on. 


Here we can see the tech­ni­cal chart pro­vid­ed by Here we can see that we are still in the upper part of the 52wk range and we opened at the top of the dai­ly range. How­ev­er dropped slight­ly since then, but haven’t touched pre­vi­ous dai­ly lows. 

The pos­i­tive cor­re­lat­ed finan­cial mar­kets look a lit­tle bull­ish or inde­ci­sive. It is almost noon in Asia so we’ll have to see how this devel­ops lat­er in the day. 

The neg­a­tive cor­re­lat­ed ones is in the red mean­ing upward pres­sure on crude oil. After tak­ing account of these ‘fac­tors’ that are sup­posed to be relat­ed to crude oil, I will make my per­son­al con­clu­sion if there actu­al­ly is a cor­re­la­tion or if it actu­al­ly mat­ters to the way I am trading. 


News – Crude oil prices set­tled low­er on Wednes­day as ris­ing crude sup­plies and a surge in U.S. pro­duc­tion off­set data show­ing gaso­line sup­plies fell more-than-expected

Crude oil prices fell for the first time in three days as con­cerns over a surge in US pro­duc­tion weighed on upside momen­tum while a mixed report from the Ener­gy Infor­ma­tion Admin­is­tra­tion (EIA) show­ing crude stock­piles rose for the first time in five weeks and gaso­line sup­plies fell more-than-expect­ed failed to lift sentiment.

Inven­to­ries of U.S. crude rose by rough­ly 856,000 bar­rels in the week end­ed Oct. 20, miss­ing expec­ta­tions of a draw of 2.6m barrels.

Gaso­line inven­to­ries – one of the prod­ucts that crude is refined into – fell by 5.5m bar­rels, con­found­ing expec­ta­tions of a draw of just 17,000 bar­rels while sup­plies of dis­til­late – the class of fuels that includes diesel and heat­ing oil fell by about 5.3m bar­rels, top­ping expec­ta­tions of a decline of 860,000 barrels.

“At the end of the day, crude oil demand is only one part of the equa­tion. If you have strong prod­ucts demand, that means refiner­ies are going to buy more crude oil to cre­ate those prod­ucts. Demand looks great,” said Michael Loewen, a com­modi­ties strate­gist at Sco­tia­bank in Toronto.


Source: — Crude oil price fell in Asia on Thurs­day as week­ly data con­firmed a sur­prise build in U.S. inven­to­ries and investors mulled demand prospects globally.

Chi­na, the world’s sec­ond largest crude importer, unveiled its lead­er­ship team on Wednes­day and sig­naled it aims to improve qual­i­ty of life and trim back rapid export-ori­ent­ed indus­tri­al­iza­tion in favor of domes­tic con­sump­tion. The switch, expect­ed to accel­er­ate in the next five years in Chi­na has poten­tial neg­a­tive impli­ca­tions for crude oil demand.




TOKYO (Reuters) — Asian stocks bare­ly changed on Thurs­day, capped as Wall Street shares pulled back from record highs, while the euro stretched gains ahead of a Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank meet­ing that could take a major step away from its accom­moda­tive policy

MSCI’s broad­est index of Asia-Pacif­ic shares out­side Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) was flat. Aus­tralian stocks (AXJO) and South Kore­a’s KOSPI (KS11) both inched down 0.1 percent.

Japan’s Nikkei (N225), which had its 16-day win­ning run snapped the pre­vi­ous day, shrugged off Wall Street weak­ness and rose 0.2 per­cent, lift­ed by shares backed by strong earnings.

Shang­hai stocks (SSEC) were up 0.4 per­cent. Tai­wan (TWOII) was flat.

U.S. stocks fell on Wednes­day on a batch of soft quar­ter­ly earn­ings, with the Dow Jones Indus­tri­al Aver­age (DJI) suf­fer­ing its worst day in sev­en weeks after ris­ing to a record peak the pre­vi­ous ses­sion. (N)

In cur­ren­cy mar­kets, the euro added to overnight gains to reach a six-day high of $1.1833 , accom­pa­ny­ing a rise by the Ger­man 10-year bund yield to a three-week top of 0.50 percent

The dol­lar index against a bas­ket of six cur­ren­cies was down 0.15 per­cent at 93.565 (DXY), its low­est in six days.




Technical Analysis




Yes­ter­day was inter­est­ing to see that we start­ed a decline to the 52 dol­lar lev­el. I believe this to be a cru­cial point for us to see if the under­ly­ing fun­da­men­tals will actu­al­ly push us fur­ther down which is good for the one short posi­tion I still have open that is los­ing at the moment. On the oth­er side it would be bad for the long posi­tions I opened think­ing the bounce back would retest the 52.40 lev­el again. I’ll keep all open and see how they play out. My strat­e­gy here is yes we do need to wait for con­fir­ma­tion. But we can very well see a return to the 52.30 mark before head­ing fur­ther down. That is where I put my stops for the long posi­tions incur­ring some loss­es. This I believe is OK since I have made more yes­ter­day in prof­its than I would stand to lose on them. 


If we break out to the down­side I would say we are look­ing at a move towards the 51.50 lev­el via a short stop at the 51.80. If we head back up we will mere­ly retest the 52.30 lev­els. I think it is more like­ly for us to see a fur­ther drop. But in the crude oil mar­ket, you sim­ply nev­er know. 


Thank you


Thank you as always for being a part of my jour­ney into becom­ing a trad­er. Please feel free to com­ment or ask ques­tions. Let me know what you think.



Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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