Bear Market Trader | Daily take on WTI crude oil
My daily take on the WTI crude oil market.

Daily take on WTI crude oil

Daily take on WTI crude oil


This is my dai­ly take on the WTI crude oil mar­ket. I will keep these post short and to the point. The pur­pose of these posts used to be to set me up with a bias for the day and look for sig­nals to start tak­ing posi­tions. How­ev­er, I learned that it doesn’t mean much. Espe­cial­ly the fun­da­men­tals don’t make much sense. When there’s an over­sup­ply you’d think prices will go down, but it’s a 50/50 chance the way I see it at this point. So what do we do? Cry and give up? HELL NO! We adapt and adjust. Evolve as a trad­er. THe mar­ket is always right. So what does that mean for me? That means I will focus more on cru­cial parts of the tech­ni­cal analy­sis that gives me the lev­els I can play at when the mar­ket choos­es to go in that direc­tion. In addi­tion to this… I will still track the fun­da­men­tals besides the tech­ni­cals. I’ll just won’t draw any con­clu­sions from it at this point. At a lat­er stage I want to ana­lyze these find­ings with what the mar­ket pre­sent­ed to me but I need to gath­er more infor­ma­tion first. So let’s get on with it. 


Graph­i­cal data is from and Meta­trad­er 4.



Click here for my dis­claimer. It basi­cal­ly says that I am on my path to becom­ing a trad­er and these are just my opin­ions on how to approach learn­ing to trade. Feel free to check it out and com­ment on it.

Here it goes…


WTI has pos­i­tive and neg­a­tive cor­re­la­tions to oth­er finan­cial instru­ments and I will list these here to show the rea­son for my bias. I have three cat­e­gories: Down­ward, neu­tral and upward pres­sure. Down­ward pres­sure means that the items list­ed have a neg­a­tive effect on WTI crude oil and is cause for a short-bias and vice versa.


Related Financial Markets


TA charts

On the dai­ly chart look­ing a year back we can see that we are near­ing the highs from the begin­ning of 2017. 


Relat­ed ETFs

We can see that the relat­ed ETFs are look­ing pre­dom­i­nant­ly positive.

The pos­i­tive cor­re­lat­ed finan­cial mar­kets look bear­ish this morn­ing. As always we’ll have to see what hap­pens in the market. 

The neg­a­tive cor­re­lat­ed ones look indecisive.




HOUSTON/RIO DE JANEIRO (Reuters) — Brazil and Mex­i­co are com­pet­ing for a dimin­ish­ing resource: the invest­ment dol­lars of oil majors beat­ing a retreat from the big-tick­et off­shore projects they once coveted.

Gov­ern­ments through­out the con­ti­nent are enact­ing reforms and chang­ing con­tract terms to lure oil firms that have slashed spend­ing as they adapt to low­er crude prices. Glob­al pol­i­cy changes to address cli­mate change have giv­en an added sense of urgency to gov­ern­ments in the region and world­wide that are sit­ting on oil and gas reserves. They want to pump it before it becomes less valuable.

Low crude prices have made oil firms choose care­ful­ly where they invest, but they need the sub­stan­tial reserves Brazil and Mex­i­co are offer­ing. The rate that ener­gy com­pa­nies replace the bar­rels they pro­duce is a key met­ric for share­hold­ers, and off­shore blocks such as those in Mex­i­co and Brazil come with bil­lions of bar­rels in avail­able reserves. 

For many oil majors, the Mex­i­can side of the Gulf offers a famil­iar geol­o­gy: the for­ma­tions below the seabed are sim­i­lar to those they have drilled for decades in the near­by U.S. waters. But unlike Brazil, there has been no deep­wa­ter devel­op­ment in Mex­i­co, so more infra­struc­ture needs to be built.




UNITED NATIONS (Reuters) — The Syr­i­an gov­ern­ment of Bashar al-Assad is to blame for a chem­i­cal attack on the oppo­si­tion-held town of Khan Sheikhoun that killed dozens of peo­ple last April, accord­ing to a report sent to the Unit­ed Nations Secu­ri­ty Coun­cil on Thursday.


Source: — Gold prices fell in Asia on Fri­day as the dol­lar showed con­tin­ued gains and demand for safe-haven assets is on the wane for now.

Overnight, gold prices fell on Thurs­day after the dol­lar hit three-month highs fol­low­ing a slump in euro as the Euro­pean Cen­tral Bank pared its bond pur­chas­es while extend­ing its mon­e­tary stim­u­lus pro­gramme for a peri­od of nine-months.


Source: — Crude oil prices fell in Asia on Fri­day with the mar­ket cau­tious as OPEC mem­ber and major pro­duc­er Venezuela report­ed­ly faces prob­lems mak­ing pay­ments on bonds issued to the state oil com­pa­ny PDVSA and with U.S. rig count data ahead.

Pay­ments on bonds issued by Petroleos de Venezuela SA, or PDVSA, and the Venezue­lan gov­ern­ment remain a ques­tion mark two days after the state-owned refin­er and pro­duc­er made good on two over­due bond pay­ments and approved a $985 mil­lion debt pay­ment due Friday.

Overnight, crude oil prices set­tled high­er on Thurs­day as recent data show­ing an uptick in U.S. crude sup­plies and a surge in domes­tic pro­duc­tion was off­set by grow­ing expec­ta­tions that Opec will extend its glob­al accord to cut output.




SEOUL (Reuters) — Oil prices inched high­er on Fri­day, with Brent crude approach­ing $60 a bar­rel amid tight­en­ing mar­ket expec­ta­tions, buoyed by com­ments from Sau­di Ara­bi­a’s Crown Prince back­ing the exten­sion of OPEC-led out­put cuts.

Oil prices have hov­ered near their high­est for this year in recent weeks amid signs of a tight­en­ing mar­ket, talk of an exten­sion of the cuts, and geopo­lit­i­cal risks in Iraq and Iran. 

“Prices for both Brent and WTI are now approach­ing impor­tant recent range tops. My rhetor­i­cal self is bull­ish longer term and my sys­tem is already long,” said Greg McKen­na, chief mar­ket strate­gist at futures bro­ker­age AxiTrader. 




Technical Analysis


Yes­ter­day I didn’t trade my plan. I was oth­er­wise occu­pied and didn’t put in the focus to just trade my plan. I revert­ed to try­ing to hunt for the rever­sal which nev­er came and now I have 4 short posi­tions open that are at a loss. I think there will be a pull­back com­ing so I’ll decide there and then how to man­age my losses. 


If we look at today’s 4‑hourly chart we can see that we broke through the resis­tance trend line. How­ev­er, we did not take over the top we formed on 26th of Sep­tem­ber. This could indi­cate a pull­back to the 52.60 lev­el before head­ing fur­ther up. Or, we drop below that same lev­el and make our way down for a while to set­tle in the mar­ket a bit. Not sure what that means but I make up things as I go along and it has helped me so far so I’m stick­ing with it 🙂


Let’s see how we are clos­ing the week today. 


Thank you


Thank you as always for being a part of my jour­ney into becom­ing a trad­er. Please feel free to com­ment or ask ques­tions. Let me know what you think.



Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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