Bear Market Trader | Daily take on WTI crude oil
My daily take in the WTI crude oil market.
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Daily take on WTI crude oil

Daily take on WTI crude oil


This is my dai­ly take on the WTI crude oil mar­ket. I will keep these post short and to the point. The pur­pose of these posts used to be to set me up with a bias for the day and look for sig­nals to start tak­ing posi­tions. How­ev­er, I learned that it doesn’t mean much. Espe­cial­ly the fun­da­men­tals don’t make much sense. When there’s an over­sup­ply you’d think prices will go down, but it’s a 50/50 chance the way I see it at this point. So what do we do? Cry and give up? HELL NO! We adapt and adjust. Evolve as a trad­er. The mar­ket is always right. So what does that mean for me? That means I will focus more on cru­cial parts of the tech­ni­cal analy­sis that gives me the lev­els I can play at when the mar­ket choos­es to go in that direc­tion. In addi­tion to this… I will still track the fun­da­men­tals besides the tech­ni­cals. I’ll just won’t draw any con­clu­sions from it at this point. At a lat­er stage I want to ana­lyze these find­ings with what the mar­ket pre­sent­ed to me but I need to gath­er more infor­ma­tion first. So let’s get on with it. 


Graph­i­cal data is from and Meta­trad­er 4.



Click here for my dis­claimer. It basi­cal­ly says that I am on my path to becom­ing a trad­er and these are just my opin­ions on how to approach learn­ing to trade. Feel free to check it out and com­ment on it.

Here it goes…


WTI has pos­i­tive and neg­a­tive cor­re­la­tions to oth­er finan­cial instru­ments and I will list these here to show the rea­son for my bias. I have three cat­e­gories: Down­ward, neu­tral and upward pres­sure. Down­ward pres­sure means that the items list­ed have a neg­a­tive effect on WTI crude oil and is cause for a short-bias and vice versa.


Related Financial Markets


TA charts



On the dai­ly chart look­ing a year back we can see that we are near­ing the highs from the begin­ning of 2017. We can see that that we are near­ing the 52 wk high. We opened 26 cents high­er than pre­vi­ous close. Let’s see where this all takes us. 



Relat­ed ETFs



We can see that the relat­ed ETFs are look­ing most­ly positive.

The pos­i­tive cor­re­lat­ed finan­cial mar­kets look bull­ish this morn­ing. As always we’ll have to see what hap­pens in the market.


The neg­a­tive cor­re­lat­ed ones look like they might put upward pres­sure on crude oil prices. 




SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Oil mar­kets were sta­ble on Mon­day, with Brent remain­ing above $60 per bar­rel sup­port­ed by expec­ta­tions that an OPEC-led pro­duc­tion cut due to expire next March would be extended.

While OPEC and its part­ners are with­hold­ing sup­ply, U.S. pro­duc­tion has risen almost 13 per­cent since mid-2016. As a result WTI is trad­ing at a steep dis­count of around $6.50 per bar­rel against Brent, which has made U.S. crude exports to the world attractive.

Hedge funds and oth­er mon­ey man­agers raised their bull­ish wagers on U.S. crude futures and options in the week to Octo­ber 24, the U.S. Com­mod­i­ty Futures Trad­ing Com­mis­sion (CFTC) said on Friday.

“We note that both con­tracts’ (Brent and WTI) rel­a­tive strength indices (RSI) are both approach­ing over­bought lev­els. This may imply that crude has risen enough in the short term and some con­sol­i­da­tion is required,” said Jef­frey Hal­ley, senior mar­ket ana­lyst at futures bro­ker­age OANDA in Singapore.


Source: — Gold prices gained in Asia on Mon­day with sen­ti­ment upbeat and the mar­ket well sup­port­ed as recent dol­lar gains were tak­en in stride and demand cues in the phys­i­cal mar­kets were eyed ahead of end of the year holidays.

Investors will be focus­ing on Wednesday’s Fed meet­ing for fresh clues on the like­ly tra­jec­to­ry of mon­e­tary pol­i­cy. Friday’s U.S. jobs report for Octo­ber will also be close­ly watched.

Last week, gold prices rose on Fri­day, revers­ing ear­li­er loss­es as the Cat­alon­ian par­lia­men­t’s dec­la­ra­tion of inde­pen­dence bol­stered safe haven demand for the pre­cious metal.

The dol­lar eased fol­low­ing a report that U.S. Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump is con­sid­er­ing nom­i­nat­ing Fed­er­al Reserve Gov­er­nor Jerome Pow­ell to lead the U.S. cen­tral bank, a move that would sig­nal con­ti­nu­ity for mon­e­tary policy.

The stronger-than-expect­ed read­ing under­lined the case for the Fed to raise inter­est rates at a faster pace in the com­ing months. High­er rates tend to make the dol­lar more attrac­tive to yield seek­ing investors.




Technical Analysis


Fri­day was a ‘fun’ day for me. I decid­ed to not active­ly trade but just mon­i­tor the mar­ket. Need­less to say I could have jumped on board of the mas­sive ral­ly that pro­pelled us into ‘new’ ter­ri­to­ry. New-ish… It was the end of 2016, begin­ning of this year that we have seen these lev­els before. After such a steep climb we are bound to have some cor­rec­tion com­ing up. I still have short posi­tions open that are at a big loss so I am look­ing for a lev­el that I think we can hit and I can get out. Obvi­ous­ly at a loss, but right now I am just hop­ing to lim­it my loss­es as much as I can. 


I think we can see a pull­back to about 53.70 maybe even 53.50 before we see anoth­er run up. If it does break the 53.50 point we can pos­si­ble see a move towards the 52.80 mark.


Thank you


Thank you as always for being a part of my jour­ney into becom­ing a trad­er. Please feel free to com­ment or ask ques­tions. Let me know what you think.



Day trader. Tech geek. Sim Racing Enthusiast.

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