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Bear Market Trader | Daily take on WTI crude oil
My daily take in the WTI crude oil market.

Daily take on WTI crude oil

Daily take on WTI crude oil


This is my dai­ly take on the WTI crude oil mar­ket. I will keep these post short and to the point. The pur­pose of these posts used to be to set me up with a bias for the day and look for sig­nals to start tak­ing posi­tions. How­ev­er, I learned that it doesn’t mean much. Espe­cial­ly the fun­da­men­tals don’t make much sense. When there’s an over­sup­ply you’d think prices will go down, but it’s a 50/50 chance the way I see it at this point. So what do we do? Cry and give up? HELL NO! We adapt and adjust. Evolve as a trad­er. The mar­ket is always right. So what does that mean for me? That means I will focus more on cru­cial parts of the tech­ni­cal analy­sis that gives me the lev­els I can play at when the mar­ket choos­es to go in that direc­tion. In addi­tion to this… I will still track the fun­da­men­tals besides the tech­ni­cals. I’ll just won’t draw any con­clu­sions from it at this point. At a lat­er stage I want to ana­lyze these find­ings with what the mar­ket pre­sent­ed to me but I need to gath­er more infor­ma­tion first. So let’s get on with it. 


Graph­i­cal data is from and Meta­trad­er 4.



Click here for my dis­claimer. It basi­cal­ly says that I am on my path to becom­ing a trad­er and these are just my opin­ions on how to approach learn­ing to trade. Feel free to check it out and com­ment on it.

Here it goes…


WTI has pos­i­tive and neg­a­tive cor­re­la­tions to oth­er finan­cial instru­ments and I will list these here to show the rea­son for my bias. I have three cat­e­gories: Down­ward, neu­tral and upward pres­sure. Down­ward pres­sure means that the items list­ed have a neg­a­tive effect on WTI crude oil and is cause for a short-bias and vice versa.


Related Financial Markets


TA charts



On the dai­ly chart look­ing a year back we can see that we are near­ing the highs from the begin­ning of 2017. We can see that that we are near­ing the 52 wk high. We opened 26 cents high­er than pre­vi­ous close. Let’s see where this all takes us. 



Relat­ed ETFs



We can see that the relat­ed ETFs are look­ing most­ly positive.

The pos­i­tive cor­re­lat­ed finan­cial mar­kets look bull­ish this morn­ing. As always we’ll have to see what hap­pens in the market.


The neg­a­tive cor­re­lat­ed ones look like they might put upward pres­sure on crude oil prices. 




SINGAPORE (Reuters) — Oil mar­kets were sta­ble on Mon­day, with Brent remain­ing above $60 per bar­rel sup­port­ed by expec­ta­tions that an OPEC-led pro­duc­tion cut due to expire next March would be extended.

While OPEC and its part­ners are with­hold­ing sup­ply, U.S. pro­duc­tion has risen almost 13 per­cent since mid-2016. As a result WTI is trad­ing at a steep dis­count of around $6.50 per bar­rel against Brent, which has made U.S. crude exports to the world attractive.

Hedge funds and oth­er mon­ey man­agers raised their bull­ish wagers on U.S. crude futures and options in the week to Octo­ber 24, the U.S. Com­mod­i­ty Futures Trad­ing Com­mis­sion (CFTC) said on Friday.

“We note that both con­tracts’ (Brent and WTI) rel­a­tive strength indices (RSI) are both approach­ing over­bought lev­els. This may imply that crude has risen enough in the short term and some con­sol­i­da­tion is required,” said Jef­frey Hal­ley, senior mar­ket ana­lyst at futures bro­ker­age OANDA in Singapore.


Source: — Gold prices gained in Asia on Mon­day with sen­ti­ment upbeat and the mar­ket well sup­port­ed as recent dol­lar gains were tak­en in stride and demand cues in the phys­i­cal mar­kets were eyed ahead of end of the year holidays.

Investors will be focus­ing on Wednesday’s Fed meet­ing for fresh clues on the like­ly tra­jec­to­ry of mon­e­tary pol­i­cy. Friday’s U.S. jobs report for Octo­ber will also be close­ly watched.

Last week, gold prices rose on Fri­day, revers­ing ear­li­er loss­es as the Cat­alon­ian par­lia­men­t’s dec­la­ra­tion of inde­pen­dence bol­stered safe haven demand for the pre­cious metal.

The dol­lar eased fol­low­ing a report that U.S. Pres­i­dent Don­ald Trump is con­sid­er­ing nom­i­nat­ing Fed­er­al Reserve Gov­er­nor Jerome Pow­ell to lead the U.S. cen­tral bank, a move that would sig­nal con­ti­nu­ity for mon­e­tary policy.

The stronger-than-expect­ed read­ing under­lined the case for the Fed to raise inter­est rates at a faster pace in the com­ing months. High­er rates tend to make the dol­lar more attrac­tive to yield seek­ing investors.




Technical Analysis


Fri­day was a ‘fun’ day for me. I decid­ed to not active­ly trade but just mon­i­tor the mar­ket. Need­less to say I could have jumped on board of the mas­sive ral­ly that pro­pelled us into ‘new’ ter­ri­to­ry. New-ish… It was the end of 2016, begin­ning of this year that we have seen these lev­els before. After such a steep climb we are bound to have some cor­rec­tion com­ing up. I still have short posi­tions open that are at a big loss so I am look­ing for a lev­el that I think we can hit and I can get out. Obvi­ous­ly at a loss, but right now I am just hop­ing to lim­it my loss­es as much as I can. 


I think we can see a pull­back to about 53.70 maybe even 53.50 before we see anoth­er run up. If it does break the 53.50 point we can pos­si­ble see a move towards the 52.80 mark.


Thank you


Thank you as always for being a part of my jour­ney into becom­ing a trad­er. Please feel free to com­ment or ask ques­tions. Let me know what you think.



Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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