GBPNZD Week 18 Trading Plan

01 May GBPNZD Week 18 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GBPNZD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• April closed as a Strong Bear­ish Inside Bar after react­ing off MN-C‑S 1.97330

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• W1 Phase 4 with last week clos­ing as a Drag­on­fly Doji react­ing off W1 VWAP

Dai­ly — Neutral

• Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 1 as it’s trad­ing in a range just above W1/D1 QLO at D1 LKC and D1 200MA in R

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neutral

• Even though MN closed quite bear­ish there might be a reac­tion as price has returned to pre­vi­ous Month’s low. W1 shows a Neu­tral pat­tern at the end of a Phase 4 thus prob­a­bil­i­ties favor a con­tin­u­a­tion down unless next week clos­es as a rever­sal pat­tern. Due to D1 show­ing a pos­si­ble Phase 1 (although could be a redis­tri­b­u­tion 3 as well before a break down fur­ther. There are no sig­nif­i­cant demand on the way to MN-C‑D 1.89610 although D1/W1 QLo is right below. Bot­tom line is price needs to break the D1 range to get a bet­ter direc­tion­al clue.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Non-Farm Fri­day May 7th

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.94900

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.89610

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Aim to have a min­i­mum of ONE TRADE per trad­ing day
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
    • IF NOT… I will do a Bart Simp­sons exer­cise of 7 days, 50 sen­tences of: “I will fol­low my hard exit rule of a min­i­mum M15 close”.
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • At least 1 trade with 1% risk, 2nd trade only if first one worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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