GBPNZD Week 20 Trading Plan

15 May GBPNZD Week 20 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on GBPNZD. The lev­els that I will be look­ing at with a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Bearish

• April closed as a Strong Bear­ish Inside Bar after react­ing off MN-C‑S 1.97330
• Price is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in last month’s body

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bullish

• Last week closed as a W1 Bull Engulf (giv­ing W1-C‑D 1.92819 above W1 QLo, W1 VWAP BO to CAS) how­ev­er with a long sell­ing wick (react­ing off W1-C‑S 1.96840) indi­cat­ing some sell­ers are still present
• Mid W1 swing after com­ing from W1 QLo

Dai­ly — Bearish

• D1 Three Inside Down (giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.95526) at D1 QHi coin­cid­ing with D1 UKC in R, with over­head W1-C‑S 1.96840

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Slight­ly Bearish

• With new­ly formed W1 Bull Engulf with long sell­ing wick (D1 THree Inside Down) there could be a move down to test new­ly formed W1 demand. 
• D1 is range bound after reject­ing D1 QHi the the­sis holds up for a pos­si­ble vis­it to QLo with­in the range bound narrative. 
• The­sis won’t hold up if price retraces to new­ly formed D1 sup­ply and holds around those lev­els.  Although be flex­i­ble as price can pull­back a bit to new­ly formed D1 sup­ply before con­tin­u­ing down.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 1.96840
• D1-C‑S 1.95526

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.92819

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Aim to have a min­i­mum of ONE TRADE per trad­ing day
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or hit time stop)
    • IF NOT… I will do a Bart Simp­sons exer­cise of 7 days, 50 sen­tences of: “I will trust my trad­ing skills and take my exits accordingly”.
  • M15/M30 com­bi­na­tion at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • At least 1 trade with 1% risk, 2nd trade only if first one worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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