GBPNZD — Week 23 Trading Plan

03 Jun GBPNZD — Week 23 Trading Plan

Because of enter­ing the sum­mer months I am switch­ing to some­thing more liq­uid: GBPNZD

This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Bear Engulf at MN Sup­ply ZOI and MN1 QHi with good reac­tive move away

Week­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• After weeks of phase 3 there was a bear engulf cre­at­ing sup­ply (C‑2.06268) fol­lowed by DBD and lad­der and price is now trad­ing with­in W1 QLo at W1-C‑D 1.96479
• Anoth­er W1 demand ZOI under­neath W1-C‑D 1.95295
• We are mid­week into the devel­op­ing candle

Dai­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Same con­ter­mi­nous demand with week­ly ZOIs
• Sup­ply ZOI at D1 QLo with D1-C‑S 1.99745
• Price is trad­ing at W1-C‑D 1.96479 with­in D1 QLo

H4 — Neutral

• 2 big rejec­tions of D1-C‑S 1.99745, 2nd being a bear engulf with con­se­quent DBD into demand
• No phase 1 yet so phase 4 is still in effect unless price starts to react at this demand.

Mar­ket Profile

• AS opened 100 pips away from Lon­don PVAL and has con­tin­ued down exhaust­ing AS range 730 with a total of 1316 at this moment. Already 87% of ADR. 

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neutral

• Month­ly being in the mid­dle of a swing and around VWAP I would nor­mal­ly sug­gest a slight­ly bull­ish sen­ti­ment. This com­bined with week­ly demand ZOIs that take prece­dence over VWAP. Week­ly show­ing a range that is slight­ly slop­ing up tak­ing VWAP clos­er to price and the con­se­quent break down I am slight­ly bear­ish. How­ev­er with demand in the way we could see bull­ish sen­ti­ment in the short term. The Dai­ly show­ing a move below LKC into demand at this point could be con­ducive for a mean rever­sion to VWAP but also a con­tin­u­a­tion. H4 is show­ing slight­ly more bull­ish sen­ti­ment due to accel­er­at­ed move down but no phase 1 yet so a con­tin­u­a­tion is more like­ly (for now). The abnor­mal­i­ty of the ses­sion range we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion of the move or a rever­sion to mean but will need Lon­don open and IB to give me a bet­ter picture.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.99745

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.96479
• W1-C‑D 1.95295

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: Time-based stop (under spe­cial cir­cum­stances extend by half an hour)
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL 20 pips + spread or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • Entry on TPO break of IB
  • Ear­ly entry with price action con­fir­ma­tion at 
    • H4 con­ter­mi­nous
    • Open far from val­ue, antic­i­pat­ing a move back to val­ue using an engulf­ing + sub­se­quent break of TPO
  • Min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for in con­junc­tion with H4 con­ter­mi­nous lines
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
• I will post trades including:
  • Trade loca­tion
  • Price action entry condition
  • What were TPOs doing at the time
  • With screen­shot
• Keep own approach of KC, VWAP as odd enhancers instead of hard trade locations