GBPNZD Week 37 Trading Plan

05 Sep GBPNZD Week 37 Trading Plan

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This is my week­ly out­look on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basi­cal­ly the lev­els that I will be look­ing at where it has a high­er prob­a­bilis­tic chance the mar­ket will start react­ing. Dur­ing the ses­sion I then wait for the mar­ket to hit those lev­els and either con­firm or reject my bias through price action con­fir­ma­tion and mar­ket pro­file. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to peo­ple that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out. 

Month­ly — Slight­ly Bearish

• Last month closed as a pin­bar with longer sell­ing wick
• Cur­rent­ly price is trad­ing with­in last month’s body and slight­ly above MN-C‑D 1.97330
• Price is trad­ing above VWAP in R

Week­ly — Bearish

• W1 Evening Star and last week we had a near test of W1-C‑S 2.00051 (2nd chance entry) and closed below the pre­ced­ing week. 
• Some con­ges­tion with MN-C‑D 1.97330
• Price fol­low­ing VWAP in DT
• Mid-swing
• Trend down

Dai­ly — Neutral

• MN-C‑D 1.97330 = D1 demand
• D1 con­sol­i­da­tion between MN-C‑D 1.97330 and D1-C‑S 1.98116, pos­si­ble phase 1
• Mid-swing
• Trend down

H4 — Neutral

• H4 Bear Engulf at D1-C‑S 1.98116 fol­lowed by messy price action in can­dles with longer buy­ing wicks test­ing H4-C‑D 1.97133 (and MN-C‑D 1.97330) with­in H4 QLo 
• Pos­si­ble Phase 1
• Trend Down

Mar­ket Pro­file — Neutral

• Brack­et­ing Pro­files with Fri­day open­ing above range

Sen­ti­ment sum­ma­ry — Neu­tral to Slight­ly Bearish

•  With price trad­ing above MN demand and D1 con­sol­i­da­tion that is look­ing like a pos­si­ble phase 1 I am slight­ly inclined to see a tran­si­tion to phase 2. A big con is the week­ly show­ing a con­tin­u­a­tion to the Evening Star it could be a speed bump on the way down. Anoth­er con is the D1 UT hav­ing crossed down from VWAP and we test­ed VWAP once we might see a con­tin­u­a­tion down. Unless there is a con­fi­dent close above or below the D1 range I will remain neu­tral for now. 

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• W1-C‑S 2.00051
• D1-C‑S 1.98116

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.97330
• H4-C‑D 1.97133

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Week­ly Goal
  • For­mu­late hypos in order of like­li­hood and track with actu­al devel­op­ment on the day
  • Incor­po­rate pro­file day type
• Trad­ing Rules
  • If Open out­side of val­ue con­sid­er the place­ment in rela­tion to ADR/ASR
  • FX with­in val­ue > DAX
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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