12 Sep GBPNZD Week 38 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Slightly Bearish
- Almost entirely retraced July’s move (thus trading at the lower range) but we still have over 2 weeks left in the bar
Weekly — Slightly Bearish
- Arrived back at the originating level from week of July 19th with W1-C‑D 1.92067
- Within W1 QLo
Daily — Bearish
- Clean arrival at D1-C‑D 1.91303 within D1 QLo
H4 — Neutral
- Some congestion on the way down at W1-C‑D 1.92067 before proceeding down to D1-C‑D 1.91303 and ending with a Bull Engulf giving H4-C‑D 1.91781 but no follow-through yet. Plus price hasn’t closed within H4 demand.
- H4-C‑S 1.92480 BASE formed on the way down.
- Possible phase 1 or even transition to 2 if there is a follow-through reacting to underlying demand
- Price trading within H4 QLo
Market Profile — Neutral
- Profiles still in DT.
Sentiment summary — Neutral to Slightly Bearish
- We could see some range bound trading due to a possible H4 phase 1 or it might be a speed bump on the way down. Another reason for a phase 1 could be the ‘exhausted’ move on Friday and the consequent lack of follow-through. Could be a sign of covering of selling in the market. A bullish sign would be if we would take out H4-C‑S 1.92480 BASE. As always will need to monitor profile to further gauge the change in sentiment (if any).
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- H4-C‑S 1.94667
- H4-C‑S 1.92480 BASE
ZOIs for Possible Long
- W1-C‑D 1.92067
- D1-C‑D 1.91303
Focus Points for trading development
- Weekly Goal
- Formulate hypos in order of likelihood and track with actual development on the day
- Incorporate profile day type
- Trading Rules
- If Open outside of value consider the placement in relation to ADR/ASR
- FX within value > DAX
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING