23 Jan GBPNZD Week 4 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow through market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Neutral to Slightly Bullish
- December closed as a long-legged Dragonfly Doji (longer buying wick) and closing above MN-C‑D 1.89612
- Currently price is trading above demand after having gone deeper into underlying demand but unsuccessful to make a LL. We have made a HH to last month though.
Weekly — Neutral to Slightly Bullish
- Price took out supply and leaving W1-C‑D 1.90104 behind after creating a Bull Engulf on 2nd test of W1-C‑D 1.85877 then no follow-through with last week closing as a Gravestone Doji (longer selling wick) after reacting off W1 VWAP in DT failing to close above W1 QLo.
Daily — Neutral to Slightly Bearish
- D1 Arrival at D1 QHi (UKC in DT after VWAP in DT flattened and broke up. Possible Range). D1 Bear Engulf formed at D1-C‑S 1.90528 with no follow-through instead reversing at W1-C‑D 1.90104 through a Three Outside Up (closing right on D1 C‑sup thus no clear close within supply) with longer selling wick on the spinning top which coincided with a retracement to D1-C‑D 1.89777 BASE.
H4 — Neutral
- Possible Phase 1 / 3 but probably more due to trading in January being less liquid.
Market Profile — Balancing
- Almost the whole week the session ranges were too tight to trade. With January being the time that institutions trade I would expect more of the same.
- 2 day bracketing range
Sentiment summary — Balancing
- Since we took out W1 supply, combined with a (for now) incomplete pattern on larger time frame as well as no follow-through on the D1 Bear Engulf I am slightly more bullish. Only slightly though as we have at least one more week for the patterns to complete. Furthermore, with lots of contradictions, probably due to less liquidity, it could go either way. Thus I will let intraday price action and profile sentiment guide my decisions (if session ranges allow). I will also take less risk by focusing on cleaner setups and aim for 1R profits while still aiming for 2+R.
- Last week of the month
- January less liquid. Only focus on good trades. No risky trades allowed.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- W1-C-SD 1.90104
- MN-C‑S 1.95004 BASE
- W1-C‑S 1.90104
ZOIs for Possible Long
- MN-C‑D 1.89612
- D1-C‑D 1.89777 BASE
- D1-C‑D 1.87573
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING