14 Nov GBPNZD Week 47 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and market profile. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Slightly Bearish
- October closed as an inside bar testing MN-C‑S 1.97316 (created through a Bear Engulf with long buying wick) currently trading below it.
Weekly — Slightly Bearish
- Some follow-through on the W1 Bear Engulf (@ VWAP) last week closing lower after retest of W1-C-S1.95342 (Exactly on VWAP). Arrival at W1-C-D1.92065 proved reactive leaving a longer buying wick behind.
- 2nd time around testing underlying demand that was formed in July
Daily — Slightly Bullish
- D1 Three Inside Up at D1-C‑D 1.91298 returning to D1-C‑S 1.92947 (closing above D1 QLo) with some reaction.
H4 — Slightly Bearish
- H4 Three Outside Down formed at D1-C‑S 1.92947 after closing above D1 QLo but no follow-through yet. Possible Base forming.
Market Profile — Balancing
- Profile returning back into overall bracketing range
Sentiment summary — Slightly Bearish to Neutral
- D1 showing a clear reaction to W1 demand that has been there since July but failed to close well within overhead supply (for now). The previous W1 consolidation and break down testing the underlying demand could suggest more downside. With the US elections and the markets repositioning themselves we could see more balancing on medium timeframes before settling on a clear course.
- BOE Gov Bailey Speaks
- Thursday & Friday
- ECB President Lagarde Speaks
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- MN-C‑S 1.97316
- W1-C‑S 1.95342
- D1-C‑S 1.92947
- H4-C‑S 1.92739
ZOIs for Possible Long
- W1-C‑D 1.92065
- H4-C‑D 1.91432
- D1-C‑D 1.91298
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING