20 Feb GBPNZD Week 8 Trading Plan
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This is my weekly outlook on the Forex pair GBPNZD. Basically the levels that I will be looking at where it has a higher probabilistic chance the market will start reacting. During the session I then wait for the market to hit those levels and either confirm or reject my bias through price action confirmation and order flow. I hope that makes sense. If not, please get in touch with me. I love to talk to people that are on the same path as me. So don’t be shy and reach out.
Monthly — Slightly Bullish
- Last month completed a Morning Star with a long buying wick although not closing far above MN-C‑D 1.89745
- Price tested underlying demand and is currently trading above last month’s body with some reaction from the top as well.
- Still a week left in the candle
Weekly — Slightly Bearish
- Price took out overhead supply to then get pushed back down closing as a W1 Shooting Star although would need another candle (ie. another week’s trading) before we can determine a directional clue off the formation.
- Price did not close below W1 QLo
Daily — Bearish
- Some consolidation at D1 200MA with a Bear Engulf finisher giving new supply at D1-C‑S 1.92730 closing within underlying demand (but did not take it out yet at 1.91650) and rejecting D1 QHi.
H4 — Neutral
- H4 Phase 4 with clean arrival at H4-C‑D 1.92000 followed by some congestion through consolidation (with long buying wicks) although a Bear Engulf was formed.
Sentiment summary — Slightly Bullish
- Due to larger timeframe still being bullish this retracement could just be a pullback in the market. We would need another week’s trading to determine a higher likelihood of a turnaround in sentiment on the larger timeframes. Having retraced back to W1 QLo we could potentially see another bounce from here. Will need more intraday information to guide sentiment.
- It is the last week of the month so some caution is advised
- Wednesday — RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- H4-C‑S 1.94113
- D1-C‑S 1.92730
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 1.92353
- D1-C‑D 1.91538
- W1-C‑D 1.91185
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Take a break from certain components of social media
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING