How did I trade today? 01072021

07 Jan How did I trade today? 01072021

Sum­ma­ry: Short-sell­ers cov­er­ing positions

Account (P&L): FLAT

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Fair Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Fair Trade selec­tion

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: IB trav­eled 70 pips. Could just mean momen­tum behind the move as price action looks bullish. 
  • C: Extend­ed over IB clos­ing above run­ning into LTF sup­ply, M15 Inside bar / M5 bear engulf with a consolidation 
  • D: Made HHs. Was think­ing on a pos­si­ble late sus­tained auc­tion entry but with the wide IB I find it a bit risky. Espe­cial­ly when con­sid­er­ing the SL place­ment would be bad (although allowed due to the nature of the trade).
    • I should have put more empha­sis on price trad­ing with­in H4/D1 QLo as well as the val­ue accep­tance after a H4 con­sol­i­da­tion being an indi­ca­tor of a direc­tion change
    • Closed mak­ing HHs
  • E: A trade in the oppo­site direc­tion would be risky. If there was a TPO struc­ture buildup with a good sell­ing tail and price action con­firm­ing a rever­sal I might have an oppor­tu­ni­ty. Although it would be against the cur­rent momen­tum move. As for now we are hav­ing a medi­um ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
    • Closed as inside bar with longer sell­ing wick but no TPO struc­ture buildup yet. M15 Bear Engulf though. And uncon­firmed sell­ing tail in E. 
  • F: Closed as con­sol­i­da­tion. H1 doji poten­tial Evening star (or base) if con­firmed an hour from now. 
  • G: Cur­rent­ly form­ing the 4th TPO build­ing struc­ture. I am itch­ing to go short but I feel it is more out of annoy­ance to have missed the ini­tial move then any­thing else. Yes we do have a sell­ing tail. Yes we do have a 4 TPO struc­ture buildup . Yes we do have a M15 Bear Engulf but with the Momen­tum since open I feel less con­fi­dent as there is no clear rever­sal pat­tern on M30 yet. Anoth­er thing I noticed is the P shaped pro­file that is being built indi­cat­ing short sell­ers cov­er­ing at the end of a down trend. As such I think there might be less chance of a failed auc­tion and con­se­quent fol­low-through back to IB edge low. So will stay out and observe. 
    • Closed trad­ing high­er but no HH made. Poten­tial for more upside here. 
  • H: Took out LTF sup­ply mak­ing HHs near­ing ADR exhaustion

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB: M30 DBD
  • C: Retrace­ment. Pos­si­ble consolidation. 
  • D: Extend­ing down form­ing a bear engulf.
  • E: Closed mak­ing LLs extend­ing pro­file by 1xIB
  • F: Closed as Doji, pos­si­ble Morn­ing Star after react­ing ogg LTF demand
  • G: Big move back into IB almost retrac­ing all the way back to IB edge high

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance, quick rota­tion, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auction
  • 100%
  • Even though this played out. I should have hypoth­e­sized this under the nar­ra­tive of a swing rever­sal by giv­ing more weight to the trade loca­tion. Then using pro­file and val­ue sen­ti­ment as a con­fir­ma­tion of direction. 

Hypos — GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish pa, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auction. 
  • 90%
  • DBD extend­ing from price action pre­mar­ket. Fol­lowed by what could have been a con­sol­i­da­tion but then there was anoth­er drop in the form of a Bear Engulf. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• I should have done bet­ter in my pre­mar­ket prep. The con­sol­i­da­tion after the medi­um time frame down trend I could have weight­ed more as a Phase 1 and pos­si­ble tran­si­tion to Phase 2. Hind­sight is 20/20 as they say. Luck­i­ly I have it all on tape and I can rewatch the whole thing back. I’ll get my pop­corn ready for the weekend 🙂 
• I did well dur­ing the ses­sion though being in line with the mar­ket. Due to miss­ing the ini­tial move (based on miss­ing the pos­si­bil­i­ty in my prep) I felt less con­fi­dent and opt­ed to stay out and observe. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• Felt less con­fi­dent but still objec­tive through­out the ses­sion in terms of under­stand­ing order flow and price action. 

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Trade selec­tion
  • Missed the move. Shorts cov­er­ing from the open push­ing price higher. 
• Trade Siz­ing & SL placement
  • An entry on IB exten­sion up wouldn’t have result­ed in an opti­mal prof­it tar­get and hor­ri­ble SL place­ment (which would have been okay due to the nature of the entry)
• Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt
  • If I had tak­en the trade I would have done well to observe order flow read­ing and price action to stay with the trade as my reluc­tance to go against the trade (ie. look­ing for a short term rever­sal) has proven. 

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I felt a bit jumpy but to be hon­est I feel that is also because it has been much cold­er today than in recent days. I live in a coun­try where heaters aren’t a thing as much as it is a trop­i­cal coun­try. Feet are cold and am shiv­er­ing a bit 🙂 Poor me…. Guess I’ll head up and get my heater from the attic. Should have done so earlier. 

What did I learn today?

• Don’t act on FOMO just because you missed a trade. Missed the best oppor­tu­ni­ty. Just work out if there is anoth­er oppor­tu­ni­ty by stay­ing objec­tive. If I missed the trade I default into fig­ur­ing out the details I missed and log them so I increase the pos­si­bil­i­ty of catch­ing it next time while stay­ing objec­tive to see if there is a new oppor­tu­ni­ty on the horizon.

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Be for­giv­ing when I missed some­thing. Def­i­nite­ly not try to take it out on the mar­ket as the mar­ket nev­er cares. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• I think I might have rushed my prep a bit. So I will try and catch myself next time by tak­ing a minute or two to go over my prep before finalizing. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 01072021

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 01072021

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