02 Feb How did I trade today? 02022021
Summary: No trades. Still a bit of a muppet.
Account (P&L): FLAT
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Only take trades according to a hypo unless multiple conditions are met
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Bad Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3
- IB: B closed as a Bull Engulf, no mean reversion criteria met
- C: M30 closed within IB as an Inside Bar extending 2 TPOs above IB with a slightly longer selling wick
- D: Hypo 1: Buy Stop 1847.860, SL 1844.626, TP 1854.328 at newly formed M30 Bull Engulf.
- I took it off due to indecisive price action on M15 plus mean reversion conditions not having been met yet and H4 demand being ‘old’.
- D closed as a Rally with longer buying wick, H1 Dragonfly doji (possible Base at newly formed H1 demand.
- E: Trade would have traversed to 1.6R (although I would have taken 1R due to nearby M30 VWAP (+H4 VWAP in R) in DT and time still being weird
- Closed as a Bear Engulf with selling wick (no extension down forming a Neutral Day)
- F: Closed as Bullish Inside Bar and H1 Bear Engulf with long slightly longer selling wick
- G: Closed as a consolidation
- H: Extended down from IB forming a Neutral Day traversing 1xIB below.
Hypos — GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
- Preferred: A move further down to W1 C‑dem followed by a failed auction or if within IB strong bullish reversal pattern, extension up with sustained auction. Although ADR exhaustion is right there so be cautious. Monitor for value acceptance.
- There was no move down fulfilling more of a mean reversion criteria. There was no sustained auction either. Instead a failed auction and Bear Engulf but no IB extension down forming a Neutral Day.
- EDIT: after writing the initial report I now witness an extension down from IB and it seems it’s a bit of a mixture of Hypo 2 and 3. Bottom line. I should have given more weight to the medium time frame sentiment and went for short opportunities only. I changed my muppet meter to 3 as I feel I did not do well enough today. Which is kinda weird as I was focused on short being the best probable outcome and long would have only been good if mean reversion conditions had been met.
How accurate was my assessment of market context? Was I aligned with market context?
- I did not do too well today. The trade I was thinking of initially taking would have been against medium timeframe sentiment and mean reversion conditions hadn’t been met yet. The trade would have not been the best as immediately after there was a M30 Bear Engulf. Of course there was a H4 demand there but tested multiple times and less reliable as it was an old demand. The M30 Bear Engulf as an entry wouldn’t have been good either due to SL placement. A retest of newly formed M15 Bear Engulf would have been best. Although hindsight is 20/20 as they say.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
- I felt okay
How well did I follow my process?
- Trade selection
- I had put in a buy stop order and with an extension over IB during C I didn’t expect it to get hit. When M15 price kinda faltered I took it off as I did not expect a follow-through to the move. A follow-through kinda did come but was immediately smashed back down.
- Actual opportunity would have been a retest of newly formed M15 Bear Engulf according to hypo 2 or 3.
- Trade Sizing & SL placement
- SL placement would have been good for both opps.
- Trade Execution & Mgmt
- I would have taken 1R profit (which would have hit easily as the trade reached 1.6R) due to the nature of the market conditions these days. ALso M30/H4 VWAP in the way to a higher profit target.
- The actual opportunity would have hit 2R during H. Time-based this would have been 2R as well. I took this into my playbook.
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
- I did well here
What did I learn today?
- I don’t need to be taking trades. I kinda came into the market thinking to get a good trade in if I saw one. I feel I kinda tried forcing it. Even though it would have worked out I feel it wasn’t a good enough opportunity and I would have just gotten lucky.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
- Focus on conditions getting met. Whenever I am thinking if the trade is right it is obviously wrong. Whenever it is right I know it is right.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
- Having expectations. The market doesn’t owe me anything. I am here to figure out what the market is doing and if that fits my criteria I can enter on a trade.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
- I did okay here. As I initially had put in an order and then took it off due to the realization I shouldn’t be in.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: