How did I trade today? 12162020

16 Dec How did I trade today? 12162020

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Sum­ma­ry: Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion into Medi­um time frame SD ZOI

P&L: FLAT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: Closed as a Bear Engulf with long buy­ing wick, pos­si­bil­i­ty for con­tin­u­a­tion up
  • C: Closed as an Inside Bar
  • D: Closed as Three Inside Up, no IB extension
  • E: Closed inside IB after extend­ing one TPO up
  • F: Made HHs but closed as a weak Bear Engulf tech­ni­cal­ly a failed auc­tion. Due to medi­um and high­er time frame sen­ti­ment I believe there might be a push high­er still
  • G: Shot up over IB mak­ing HHs clos­ing as a RBR
  • H: Con­tin­u­a­tion mak­ing HHs
  • I: Pull­back and con­tin­u­a­tion mak­ing HH

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB: 0.6xASR move high­er to D1-C‑S 1863.817
  • C: Closed extend­ing up
  • D: Closed mak­ing HHs
  • E: Closed as Bear Engulf at D1-C‑S 1863.817 Inside H4 QHi (not clos­ing below it though)
  • F: PT1 Short 1861.634, SL 1865.808 TP 1853.285 (not count­ed for account)
    • Closed as an Inside Bar
  • G: Closed as consolidation
  • H: Closed as a Bear Engulf again clos­ing with­in IB. Might be worth to see what it would do in over­lap noise.
  • I: It would have hit 1.5R with at TPO close a mere 0.25R.
  • J: Trad­ed low­er hit­ting 1R again. 

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Pre­ferred: Tak­ing out H4 sup­ply at 1.90002 (round num­ber) dur­ing IB. IB exten­sion up (momen­tum), mon­i­tor for sus­tained auc­tion. Pos­si­ble Low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day due to trad­ing right into over­head supply. 
  • 90%
  • There was no exten­sion dur­ing C or D. The rest was as described. There was a Bear Engulf but with a very long buy­ing wick and thus a lot of buy­ers were still around. 

Hypos — GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Swing Rever­sal / Mean Reversion
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up (ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria) fol­lowed by rever­sal price action and failed auction.
  • 100%
  • IR Range was 0.6xASR with exten­sion up ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion require­ments. Plus with near­by D1 C‑sup a mean rever­sion play was the best option. Bear Engulf form­ing a failed auction. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• I did well here. Even though I hypoth­e­sized a high­er prob­a­bil­i­ty for price to move high­er in GBPNZD I did not take a trade. I thought it was too risky and want­ed to observe more. I have seen this behav­iour before where price is ‘fight­ing’ into medium/higher time frame sup­ply or demand zone. I believe I am gain­ing an edge in this par­tic­u­lar set­up and per­haps next time I will feel more con­fi­dent to take the trade. Oth­er con­sid­er­a­tions I was making: 
  • 1) haven’t observed that many times (although enough to know there is a def­i­nite edge here) 
  • 2) Being Decem­ber I want to stay away from riski­er trades. This one being trad­ing right into a Medium/High time frame sup­ply zone. 
  • 3) Not hav­ing much of a buffer. I took ONE trade so far and made 1R…
    • It’s good that I can think clear­ly through my process weigh the risk of a cer­tain opportunity

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• I felt good

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Trade selec­tion
  • In GBPNZD the trade would have hit 3R easy (2.7 at time based close) and is still going. 
  • Entry would have been on M15 Three Inside Up after reject­ing M15 VWAP in UT (which I was stalking)
• Trade Siz­ing & SL placement
  • SL place­ment wouldn’t have been the best as it would cut through the buy­ing wick left behind ear­li­er although good enough. 
• Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt
  • Even with the M30 Bear Engulf dur­ing E I knew that it was weak and there was a good pos­si­bil­i­ty for a con­tin­u­a­tion of the move. 

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here. Ate light again. Feel­ing good. 

What did I learn today?

• When there is a medium/higher time frame nar­ra­tive for a con­tin­u­a­tion to a move, we can see price bounc­ing back against the intend­ed direc­tion as well as antic­i­pat­ing a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day extend­ing from the Ini­tial Bal­ance. Even cre­at­ing Price Action for­ma­tions against the nar­ra­tive (ie. Bear Engulf­in­gs in a Bull­ish direc­tion­al nar­ra­tive). Look for sub­tle clues of con­fir­ma­tion of your direc­tion­al bias (with­out mar­ry­ing it). For exam­ple. Today we had weak price pat­terns against the nar­ra­tive in the form of a bear engulf with very long buy­ing wick as well as a small ‘inde­ci­sive’ bear engulf fail­ing the auc­tion. This is where OODA loops come in handy cycling through H1 and M15 for fur­ther con­fir­ma­tion (or dis­prov­ing) the nar­ra­tive. As usu­al, high­er time frames prevail.

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Fol­low my process. Which entails more than just entry and exit rules. Weigh in on if a cer­tain oppor­tu­ni­ty is worth tak­ing under the cur­rent circumstances. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• I did well today

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

12162020 Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 12162020

• Twit­ter
• Insta­gram