How did I trade today? 20210216

16 Feb How did I trade today? 20210216

Sum­ma­ry: Be dumb. Fol­low price. 

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless mul­ti­ple con­di­tions are met

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Fair Trade selec­tion

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 2

Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: A closed below VAL, B took out H4 demand, looks like a sus­tained move for now. Although due to D1 c‑dem and W1 QLo it is tricky to go short. 
    • No reac­tion on LTF demands as we move lower
    • B closed below sus­tain­ing auction
  • C: Price fal­ter­ing on M5 with a bull engulf that tran­si­tioned into a M15 Bull Engulf
    • Long 1.91858, SL 1.91608, TP 1.92358
    • Closed as a bull­ish Inside Bar
  • D: Closed as an Inside Bar with long buy­ing wick, giv­ing the trade some more time. 
    • Closed as an Inside Bar with less than 50% retracement
  • E: Due to being in the trade for more than an hour I looked for M5 fal­ter­ing and when I did through a bear­ish inside bar at a LTF sup­ply I cut the trade at 0.3R. Luck­i­ly as price quick­ly dropped fur­ther clos­ing leav­ing a long sell­ing wick. 
  • F: Closed mak­ing a Bull Engulf

Sum­ma­ry

• GOLD
  • IB: A formed a Morn­ing Star clos­ing right at VAH not above. B trad­ed high­er clos­ing above VAH reject­ing value
  • C: Closed as an Inside Bar with longer buy­ing wick
  • D: Closed as RBR extend­ing over IB then clos­ing within
  • E: Closed above IB but no HHs made
  • F: Closed as a Bear Engulf fail­ing auc­tion leav­ing a Poor High behind

Hypos — GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and break down, M30 DBD (2n drop Bear Engulf)
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly close below VAL, IB exten­sion down
  • Con: Larg­er time frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Vari­a­tion: D1 c‑dem at W1 QLo
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down fol­lowed by rever­sal pat­tern and failed auction
  • 90%
  • There was no IB exten­sion to fail the auc­tion. Instead we had a Bull­ish Inside Bar with some fol­low-through before get­ting slammed back down.

Hypos — GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 phase 1 at W1 QLo location
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly close above val­ue, exten­sion up and sus­tained auction.
  • 90%
  • Ear­ly close above but there was no sus­tained auc­tion. Instead dur­ing F we had a bear engulf clos­ing with­in IB.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket context?

• I feel the trade I took was a com­bi­na­tion of Hypo 1 and 2 as it had sim­i­lar lev­els to play off of. I am think­ing if I was right to take the trade though due to H4 nar­ra­tive and val­ue rejec­tion down being against the larg­er time­frame nar­ra­tive. But due to larg­er time frame always win­ning I thought I could risk it. Glad­ly I was fol­low­ing the trade and cut before there was a drop although at the moment price seems to poten­tial­ly want­i­ng to go back up again. Still don’t want to go against that H4 DBD narrative. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

• I felt good. I was visu­al­iz­ing a quick fol­low-through and when that did not come I wait­ed about an hour to see if there was a rever­sal sign on M5 to cut the trade. Which I did. 

How well did I fol­low my process?

• Trade selec­tion
  • GBPNZD: It was hypoth­e­sized so it was good in that regard. I still feel it was a bit risky. 
• Entry Method
  • GBPNZD: If I had based my entry on the M5 which I was eye­ing I would have had a bet­ter entry. The rea­son why I did not do that was because I want­ed more con­fir­ma­tion due to B clos­ing as a near Marubozu can­dle. I wait­ed for M15 to give me some clues into a pos­si­ble rever­sal at this level. 
• Trade Siz­ing & SL placement
  • GBPNZD: Good
• Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt
  • GBPNZD: I did well here based on the information.

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

• I did well here

What did I learn today?

• I learned that even with­in a larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment we can see a val­ue rejec­tion down (tech­ni­cal­ly, but with no fol­low-through) com­ing from D1 QHi after mul­ti­ple tests. I will review the impli­ca­tions of this move lat­er when I have more information. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

• Be the sci­en­tist and have fun try­ing to fig­ure out the clues that the mar­ket provides.

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

• Wor­ry about tak­ing trades. I kin­da had a gen­er­al idea in my head for where I had liked to be in this month but the mar­ket does not give a fly­ing fuck about me or my plan. I trade what the mar­ket pro­vides me with. It is my job to the best of my abil­i­ties: catch the trade, exe­cute and man­age, and move on to the next. 
• This is also why I took away shar­ing my P/L even though you can still read about it. I feel it might give me extra pres­sure to per­form so I want to min­i­mize that. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

• I did well here.

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210216

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210216

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