How did I trade today? 20210305 - Bear Market Trader
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How did I trade today? 20210305

How did I trade today? 20210305

Sum­ma­ry: Non-farm Friday…

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

  • Only trade the main fund

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

    • IB: B closed as a Bear Engulf
    • C: Extend­ed down and took a momen­tum trade short
      • Short 1.93561 SL 1.93851 TP 1.92995
      • Got stopped out ‑1R and price closed with­in IB as a doji with longer sell­ing wick
      • Pos­si­bly due to larg­er time­frame nar­ra­tive at play it was unwise to go short. Les­son learned. Plus LTF price was in a range bound with KC widening
      • I acci­den­tal­ly opened a trade short again but luck­i­ly not on my main account. WIth price behav­ing like it is, plus me not hav­ing the best clar­i­ty in nar­ra­tive, I feel it is best to stay out. 
    • D: D closed below IB mak­ing a poor low then tak­ing it out slight­ly form­ing a DBD but not the ‘pret­ti­est’. LTF demand still intact. H1 closed as a con­tin­u­a­tion on the Bear­ish Inside Bar cre­at­ed dur­ing IB leav­ing behind a long sell­ing wick. Slight buy­ing tail formed. Need con­fir­ma­tion at the close of E. 
    • E: Closed as an Inside Bar with long sell­ing wick with­out mak­ing LLs con­firm­ing the buy­ing tail in D. Although poten­tial­ly this will get tak­en out. 
    • F: Closed high­er leav­ing a longer buy­ing wick and clos­ing with­in IB

  • GOLD
    • IB: Trad­ed down fol­lowed by an Inside Bar with longer buy­ing wick
    • C:Closed as a slight bear engulf but more a consolidation 
    • D: Closed as a Bull Engulf with longer buy­ing wick. No IB extension. 
    • E: closed as a doji
    • F: closed as a slight ral­ly with long sell­ing wick extend­ing over IB before clos­ing back with­in again. Gonna stop here. 



  • Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
    • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and uni­di­rec­tion­al day yes­ter­day with today being Fri­day we might see some profit-taking. 
    • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish Price action, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion till val­ue edge.
    • Con: No H4 demands in the way although LTF con­ges­tion might prove troublesome.
    • 90% cor­rect
    • There was no sus­tained move till val­ue edge. Instead a lot of push back and not tak­en out LTF demand. I will cor­rect this lat­er on in my DRC track­ing sheet if needed. 


  • Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
    • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and near­by D1 demand after a big­ger move down
    • Pre­ferred: IB trad­ing low­er to about 1xASR below val­ue, bull­ish price action with either IB exten­sion up or a failed auc­tion. Move to IB edge. 
    • Con: Larg­er time­frame bear­ish sentiment
    • 90% cor­rect there was no sus­tained move at the time of writ­ing. I will cor­rect this lat­er on in my DRC track­ing sheet if needed. 


How well did I fol­low my process?

  • How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket narrative?
    • GBPNZD: Not quite. As I was doing my prep I leaned towards more of a buy­ing pres­sure due to D1 and H4 sen­ti­ment in line with larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment. Fur­ther­more, price had test­ed over­head sup­ply mul­ti­ple times and D1 closed con­fi­dent­ly above D1 200MA indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble break out. I doc­u­ment­ed this but still I went for my Hypo 1 as a mean rever­sion sole­ly based on the open sen­ti­ment. When then an exten­sion down was made in C I act­ed on it. If I am com­plete­ly hon­est I was some­what pre­oc­cu­pied at the time as well. So wait­ed a few min­utes to align myself with what I was see­ing and then decid­ed to wait for at least a 3 TPO exten­sion below before get­ting involved. Wait­ed for LTF demand to get tak­en out which didn’t come. Instead a quick rever­sal and stop got tak­en out quick­ly. This is why I know I was wrong to be in the trade as usu­al­ly the trades that hit my SL quick­ly have proven to me to be trades that had the wrong trad­ing idea. Even though the price did trade low­er. Only to then reverse and pos­si­bly form­ing a neu­tral day. Which I will check back in on lat­er in my review and track in my DRC sheet.
    • Gold: Due to hav­ing hit 1R loss in GBPNZD I decid­ed to take it easy and not act on the con­sol­i­da­tion with bull engulf formed in Gold. This hap­pened above D1 demand after a fur­ther move down extend­ed a total of over 1xASR before form­ing the price pat­tern ie. mean rever­sion could be in play here. 
  • Was it a good trade (if any)
    • GBPNZD: I do think it was an okay trade due to open sen­ti­ment, price action and exten­sion as well as yes­ter­day trad­ed high­er with a pos­si­bil­i­ty for Fri­day prof­it-tak­ing. Although due to larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment it was not a great trade and con­sid­ered more risky. Live and learn. 
    • Gold: No trades taken.
  • What could I have done better?
    • GBPNZD: Giv­en more empha­sis on larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment and the sus­tained move high­er on H4 in the run up to today’s ses­sion. Not­ed for my playbook. 
    • Gold: Did not trade it. 
  • How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?
    • GBPNZD: I felt sur­pris­ing­ly calm. I have been telling myself these days that the cash is mere cap­i­tal. Cap­i­tal that pro­vides me oppor­tu­ni­ties to work out my edge in the mar­ket and this has been work­ing pret­ty well. I know that over a larg­er data sam­ple I have more good trades than bad ones so no wor­ries here. 
    • Gold: No trades taken.

How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

  • I did very well here. Did not feel emo­tion­al. I wait­ed for my rules to play out and in doing so I got my SL hit. Which is per­fect­ly fine. 

What did I learn today?

  • That I can 
    • 1) take a trade 
    • 2) can take a loss 
    • 3) prob­a­bly shouldn’t be trad­ing Non-Farm Fri­days 🙂 at least not expect a momen­tum trade to happen

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

  • Fol­low my trad­ing rules which to be hon­est I am doing pret­ty well in. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

  • Wor­ry about any one trade. It’s the long haul that matters. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

  • I did very well today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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