How did I trade today? 20210315

15 Mar How did I trade today? 20210315

Sum­ma­ry: Noth­ing Special

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #day­trad­ing #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Only trade the main account
  • No trades taken
• Focus on time-based exits
  • No trades taken
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window
  • Did well here

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • IB: IB trad­ed higher
  • C: Closed as a Weak Bear Engulf. No IB extension.
  • D: Closed trad­ing slight­ly lower
  • E: Trad­ed and closed low­er but still some buy­ers present as shown through longer buy­ing wick test­ing IB low
  • F: Closed as a Bull Engulf still no IB extension
  • G: Closed as a Drag­on­fly Doji
  • H: Closed as a ham­mer mov­ing slight­ly high­er. H4 Bull Engulf.

• GOLD
  • IB: B closed as a Bear Engulf
  • C: Closed as a bull engulf pos­si­ble consolidation 
  • D: Extend­ed and closed above IB
  • E: Made HHs in a sus­tained move
  • F: Closed as a Bear­ish inside Bar, M15 Three Out­side Down, H1 Hammer
  • G: Closed as a lit­tle spin­ning top
  • H: Start­ed tak­ing out some sin­gle prints in D but devel­op­ing val­ue area is too wide with lack of sell­ing tail to go for a sin­gle print fade. 
    • Closed as a drag­on­fly doji. H4 Bull Engulf

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and H4 con­sol­i­da­tion with break down from H4 QHi, pos­si­ble H4/D1 Phase 3
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out H4 supply.
  • Con: Lots of demand under­neath and price is not quite at M30 QLo
  • 80% cor­rect
  • Price opened mid M30 swing near VAL, Made a weak Bear Engulf in C.

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well to under­stand that there might not be a good oppor­tu­ni­ty to take a trade. When C print­ed a weak bear­ish can­dle I just let it go as price was also trad­ing mid M30 swing I did not think it would be a good opportunity.

What was the play of the day?

No play actu­al­ly. The Return to Val­ue could have net­ted a small prof­it but it would have been a bit of a guess. I did well to stay out. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

It was the first hypo but there was no IB exten­sion down. Instead some respon­sive trad­ing with­in IB. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was no real oppor­tu­ni­ty so no I did not take a trade. 

What could I have done better?

I did well today

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken.

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 (attempt­ed) break from con­sol­i­da­tion, hav­ing reached D1 Base level
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action tak­ing out LTF sup­plies. Extend­ing up with sus­tained auction.
  • Con:  Larg­er time­frame still bearish.
  • 90% cor­rect
  • B closed as a bear engulf with C clos­ing as a Bull Engulf and extend­ing up dur­ing D mak­ing HH in E. 

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? Was I aligned with mar­ket nar­ra­tive through my hypos? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I did well here. I believe due to the D1 nar­ra­tive the (even weak) H4 Three Out­side Down clos­ing slight­ly below H4 QHi could have been weighed less. Although togeth­er with the open sen­ti­ment it was sta­tis­ti­cal­ly more like­ly for a mean rever­sion. Per­haps due to D1 con­sol­i­da­tion last Fri­day clos­ing with a long buy­ing wick this could have been tapered in expec­ta­tion for a mean reversion. 

What was the play of the day?

A trend con­tin­u­a­tion into H4 sup­ply. Prob­a­bly based on D1 con­sol­i­da­tion with long buy­ing wick nar­ra­tive in com­bi­na­tion with TPO D extend­ing over after C closed as a Bull Engulf. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Hypo 3 trend con­tin­u­a­tion. Due to the open sen­ti­ment and medi­um time­frame trad­ing loca­tion I thought it would be more prob­a­ble for a mean rever­sion as hypoth­e­sized in Hypo 1. I still stand by that assessment. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

No I did not take it due to trad­ing straight into a H4 sup­ply as well as the large imbal­ance at the open this would have been a low prob­a­bil­i­ty trade. 

What could I have done better?

I did well today

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I kin­da feel less sharp today prob­a­bly due to insuf­fi­cient water intake. I for­got to buy some on the way home and didn’t drink much through­out the day. Hence… lack of con­cen­tra­tion. Although I still did well today. 

What did I learn today?

That with a large imbal­ance price still can move fur­ther away into SD zone.

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Observe.

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about tak­ing trades. I am doing well in this regard though. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Yes I did. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210315

Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210315

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