25 Mar How did I trade today? 20210325
SumÂmaÂry: FogÂgy head today
#finÂtwit #orderÂflow #dayÂtradÂing #daiÂlyreÂportÂcard #tradÂinglifestyle #dayÂtraderÂlife #grasshopÂperÂsanonyÂmous #tradÂingÂforex #tradÂingÂcomÂmodiÂties #NEXT
Every tradÂing day I recap my trades, includÂing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manÂage the trade, my emoÂtions and cogÂniÂtive funcÂtion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day tradÂer. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekÂly goal:
- Only trade the main account
- No trades taken
- Focus on time-based exits
- No trades taken
- Donât look at M5 chart unless withÂin the last hour of tradÂing window
- No trades taken
Good Pre-marÂket routines
Bad SesÂsion PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizÂing or SL placement
Good Trade ExeÂcuÂtion & Mgmt.
Good Risk AdjustÂed Returns
Yes DaiÂly review
MupÂpet meter (1 being best â 5 being worst): 1
Summary
- GBPNZD
- IB: B closed as a Bull Engulf slightÂly above VAH
- C: Closed as an Inside bar with small sellÂing wick reactÂing off M30 QHi
- D: Closed as a Three Inside Down
- E: Closed as a BullÂish Inside Bar
- F: moved highÂer makÂing HHs but closed withÂin IB again with a long sellÂing wick
- G: Moved and closed above VAH and IB
- H: Closed as a Bear Engulf withÂin IB, H4 Bull Engulf with sellÂing wick
- GOLD
- IB: Closed as a HamÂmer with buyÂing wick testÂing valÂue, M15 close withÂin value
- C: W1 câdem and LTF demand withÂin valÂue makes shortÂing risky
- Closed tradÂing down although weak and someÂwhat neutral
- D: Closed furÂther down with longer buyÂing wick
- E: Closed as a bullÂish spinÂning top
- F: GradÂuÂalÂly movÂing down
- G: GradÂuÂalÂly movÂing down
- H: closed as a hamÂmer with buyÂing wick touchÂing W1 Câdem (and extendÂing IB down) and closÂing above LTF demand. H4 Three OutÂside Down.
GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothÂeÂsize it playÂing out? How did it actuÂalÂly play out? What did the proÂfile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 â BalÂancÂing Market
- NarÂraÂtive: H4 price slow down, open inside value
- PreÂferred: Play off nearÂby LTF SD and ADR levels.
- Con: Trend is up
- 100% corÂrect
- Hypo 2 â ValÂue RejecÂtion Up
- NarÂraÂtive: Trend is up, largÂer timeÂframe bullÂish sentiment
- PreÂferred: Strong BullÂish price action coinÂcidÂing with IB break above VAH, susÂtained aucÂtion, although might see a failed aucÂtion due to overÂhead supply.
- Con: hit D1 supply
- 80% corÂrect
- TechÂniÂcalÂly there was a valÂue rejecÂtion up due to the close above VAH and extenÂsion from IB. Price howÂevÂer retraced back to VAL and then proÂceedÂed to climb highÂer again makÂing HHs.
- EDIT: I see that I had hypothÂeÂsized a potenÂtial failed aucÂtion due to overÂhead D1 supÂply which played out perÂfectÂly before conÂtinÂuÂing higher.
- Hypo 1 â BalÂancÂing Market
How accuÂrate was my assessÂment of marÂket conÂtext? Was I aligned with marÂket narÂraÂtive through my hypos? What were the cirÂcumÂstances of the develÂopÂing narÂraÂtive? How did they develÂop accordÂing to DTTZ?
When IB closed above VAH and then C TPO extendÂed IB price had techÂniÂcalÂly rejectÂed valÂue. HowÂevÂer, due to near-proxÂimÂiÂty to D1 supÂply above I did not want to go long here. This was good as D then E closed down formÂing a Three OutÂside Down only to reverse highÂer again at M30 QLo and LTF demand. The LTF demand at valÂue edge above a H4 base levÂel I am forÂward testÂing to use as a posÂsiÂble bounce point but it is still too earÂly to say and thus still unconÂcludÂed. The real opporÂtuÂniÂty was the reverÂsal durÂing E TPO howÂevÂer I did not take it due to the Three OutÂside Down creÂatÂed before. Wrote these facÂtors up into my playbook.
What was the play of the day?
A mixÂture of a valÂue rejecÂtion up with a balÂancÂing marÂket. Trend is up so I favored longs. When price rejectÂed valÂue it reversed (probÂaÂbly due to D1 Câsup) before extendÂing over valÂue again.
Was I right on the outÂcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
I was right on both hypo 1 and 2.
Was there an opporÂtuÂniÂty and did I take it?
There was an opporÂtuÂniÂty but I did not take a trade. MulÂtiÂple reaÂsons: 1) preÂocÂcuÂpied with someÂthing unreÂlatÂed to tradÂing 2) havÂing conÂfuÂsion in the valÂue rejecÂtion vs balÂancÂing marÂket setÂup 3) fogÂgy head thus cogÂniÂtive not that great today
What would a price action exit rule have done?
SlightÂly under 1R off M15 BullÂish Inside Bar entry.
How was SL placeÂment and Sizing?
Would have been good
What would time-based have done?
Time-based it would have been 0.6R
What could I have done better?
I think under the cirÂcumÂstances I did well
How did I feel before, durÂing, and after the trade?
No trades taken
GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothÂeÂsize it playÂing out? How did it actuÂalÂly play out? What did the proÂfile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 â ValÂue Acceptance
- NarÂraÂtive: Open senÂtiÂment, mediÂum timeÂframe bearÂish sentiment
- PreÂferred: EarÂly accepÂtance with quick follow-through
- Con: TradÂing right into demand
- 90% corÂrect
- There was no quick folÂlow-through. Instead a slow gradÂual decline. IB formed a hamÂmer then closed slightÂly withÂin valÂue (not conÂvincÂingÂly). C TPO did.
- Hypo 1 â ValÂue Acceptance
How accuÂrate was my assessÂment of marÂket conÂtext? Was I aligned with marÂket narÂraÂtive through my hypos? What were the cirÂcumÂstances of the develÂopÂing narÂraÂtive? How did they develÂop accordÂing to DTTZ?
I did well to underÂstand that there was a valÂue accepÂtance. HowÂevÂer, I did not like the profÂit tarÂget due to LTF demand and W1 câdem right below. Hence I let the trade go and observed.
What was the play of the day?
A valÂue accepÂtance play. B formed a hamÂmer then closed slightÂly withÂin valÂue (not conÂvincÂingÂly). C TPO did. What folÂlowed was a slow but gradÂual decline towards W1 câdem and extendÂing IB down late in the sesÂsion durÂing H TPO.
Was I right on the outÂcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
I was right but there was no good profÂit tarÂget so I let it go.
Was there an opporÂtuÂniÂty and did I take it?
There was but no good profÂit tarÂget so I let it go.
What would a price action exit rule have done?
If takÂen a short at close of C TPO the trade would netÂted 0.5R at time-based close as this came before a price action exit.
How was SL placeÂment and Sizing?
SL placeÂment would have been a few pips above M30 forÂmaÂtion and thus good
What would time-based have done?
0.5R after hitÂting 1.2R at max.
What could I have done better?
Under the cirÂcumÂstances I did well today.
How did I feel before, durÂing, and after the trade?
No trades taken.
How well did I manÂage my physÂiÂcal, emoÂtionÂal and cogÂniÂtive states?
I felt extremeÂly fatigued today. Not sure why. I did not have a heavy meal (just a salÂad) but it feels like I ate a pizÂza or someÂthing. HopeÂfulÂly, it will be gone tomorÂrow. RegardÂless, I stayed on point and tried to deduce a good play withÂout takÂing any unnecÂesÂsary risks.
What did I learn today?
That I can still folÂlow my plan even though my brain was cogÂniÂtiveÂly not the best.
Whatâs one thing I need to do more often?
FolÂlow my plan.
Whatâs one thing I need to do less often?
WorÂry about takÂing trades. I keep sayÂing this because I canât force my progress. I canât force any trades. The marÂket does not give a flyÂing fuck about me and my âeagerÂnessâ to take trades and show my âfull potentialâ.
Under the cirÂcumÂstances, did I perÂform at my best?
I did very well I feel.
For my trade plan(s) on this parÂticÂuÂlar day, go here: