How did I trade today? 20210419

Sum­ma­ry: Noth­ing wrong with sit­ting on the sidelines

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Check
• Only trade the main account
  • Check
• Be mind­ful of DTTZs
  • Check
• Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • Check
• M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Check

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Sum­ma­ry

• GBPNZD
  • IB: M30 VWAP in UT BD with IBR trad­ing down
  • C: Almost imme­di­ate exten­sion below IBR
  • D: Con­tin­u­a­tion low­er, entry off IBR exten­sion would have yield­ed a quick 2R at D1 demand
  • E: Closed as a Bull­ish Inside Bar at D1 c‑dem (coin­cid­ing with M30 LKC in UT) look­ing for a pos­si­ble move that could fade the auc­tion back to IB edge. OK buy­ing tail in D. ADR exhaus­tion is right below.
  • F: Closed as Three Inside Up
  • G: Closed as a con­tin­u­a­tion high­er fad­ing the auction
  • H: Closed fail­ing the auc­tion although some­what weak, H4 DBD with long buy­ing wick
    • Although an entry off M30 Bull­ish Inside Bar would have yield­ed 1.5R

• GOLD
  • IB: Tra­versed 0.7xASR 
  • C: Closed as an Inside Bar
  • D: Closed as a consolidation 
  • E: Closed break­ing high­er from consolidation
  • F: closed as a spin­ning top with longer buy­ing wick, TPO struc­ture cre­at­ed at IB edge High
  • G: Closed as a slight RBR
  • H: Bear Engulf, H4 con­tin­u­a­tion higher

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
    • Nar­ra­tive: Large imbal­ance at the open, pos­si­ble H4 DBD in the making
    • Pre­ferred: Momen­tum exten­sion down, sus­tained auc­tion to Val­ue edge
    • Con: D1 demand right below at M30 LKC in UT coin­cid­ing with M30 QLo, plus price is mid M30/H4 swing
    • 100% cor­rect
  • Hypo 2 — Return to Value
    • Nar­ra­tive: D1 c‑dem at VAH, M30/H4 QLo
    • Pre­ferred: Exten­sion down, bull­ish PA rever­sal to failed auc­tion, pos­si­bly form­ing a neu­tral day
    • Con: Large imbal­ance at the open
    • 100% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

I was fuck­ing dead on in my hypos god damn…. Took a per­fect day to NOT TRADE…. But hey feel­ing okay with not trad­ing is one of my goals so will let this go (as if I have any oth­er option). 

Hypo 1 played out per­fect. An entry off IB exten­sion would have yield­ed a 2R with­in an hour. 

Hypo 2 played out per­fect­ly as well with a Bull­ish Inside Bar in E and Three Inside Up for­ma­tion com­plet­ing the rever­sal in F. M15 bull engulf at close of E would have been my entry as that is what I was stalking. 

What was the play of the day?

There were 2 plays today. A mean Rever­sion and a Return to Val­ue play.

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Fuck yeah I was right

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There were 2 oppor­tu­ni­ties in GBPNZD and I did not take any…

Mean Rever­sion

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: IB extension

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): hit 2R even though there was D1 demand right there at 2R. 

Return to Val­ue (fad­ing the auction)

DTTZ: 2nd a bit ear­ly though

Entry: M30 Bull­ish Inside Bar / M15 bull engulf wait­ing for a tran­si­tion to M30 Three Inside Up

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): hit 1.5R at the close of H

What would a price action exit rule have done?

2R and 1.5R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Both would have been great. First one since it was on exten­sion IB no wor­ries on place­ment. The sec­ond would have been slight­ly below for­ma­tion so good. Entry at x.xx08 and SL at x.xx82 would have been good.

What would time-based have done?

Same 2R and 1.5R

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay out today and not put any pres­sure on myself to trade… I did bitch a lit­tle ear­li­er about not hav­ing tak­en the trades but I feel good. I fol­lowed my plan. My plan was not to trade because I felt off today. That’s what I did. Or rather did not do 🙂

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trades taken

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
  • Hypo 1 — Return to Value
    • Nar­ra­tive: H4 ham­mer after bull engulf a pos­si­ble RBR in the mak­ing. Even though below H4 QHi due to W1 QLo rejec­tion before price could take out H4/D1 QHi. IBR wide indi­ca­tion pos­si­ble strength behind the move.
    • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA with exten­sion up, sus­tained auc­tion to 1797
    • Con: Near­ing W1 VWAP in DT
    • 80% cor­rect

How accu­rate was my assess­ment of mar­ket con­text? What were the cir­cum­stances of the devel­op­ing nar­ra­tive? How did they devel­op accord­ing to DTTZ?

The ini­tial direc­tion was indeed up but most of the move hap­pened dur­ing IB. What fol­lowed was a con­sol­i­da­tion and then rever­sal accord­ing to Hypo 2 some­what (80% I’d give it) but out­side of trad­ing window.

What was the play of the day?

There wasn’t much of a play

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Not so much

What could I have done better?

I did well to stay out

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I felt not up to the chal­lenge a bit at start… think­ing to just take the day off… then thought… what the hell am I gonna do… So decid­ed to just sit and observe loosely. 

What did I learn today?

1. That I am fine sit­ting on the sidelines
2. That I fuck­ing rock in well… trad­ing… 🙂 if no one else is say­ing it I should tell myself. I am very good at putting myself down when I do things wrong but I should take it easy on myself and also pat myself on the back some­times for doing things right. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Trust myself to do well. Rather that means win­ning, los­ing, or just sit­ting on the sidelines. 

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

I think I did every­thing well today

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Yes I fuck­ing did

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210419

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210419

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