Summary: Balancing Markets
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Going running in a bit
- Only trade the main account
- Check
- Be mindful of DTTZs
- Check
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Check
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Check
Good Pre-market routines
Fair Session PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1
Summary
- GBPNZD
- IB: B closed as a Bull Engulf traversing 0.4xASR
- C: Extended above IB testing H4 c‑sup before closing as an Inverted Hammer within IB
- Paper Trade: Balancing Market, entry M5 consolidation and break down
- D: Formed an Three Outside Down closing well within IB although no test of IB low
- A balancing market LTF entry would have yielded 1.1R
- E: Closed as a Bullish Inside Bar
- F: Closed making HHs with a near-Marubozu candle closing right at H4 c‑sup
- G: Made HHs closing higher
- H: Made HHs closing as an Inverted Hammer, H4 RBR
- GOLD
- IB: A tested LTF supply closing above VAH then B closed as a Bear Engulf traversing 0.4xASR
- C: Extended below testing D1/LTF demand at VAL closing as a Hammer within IB
- Placed a Buy Limit Order about 4 pips above newly formed M5 C‑dem which never got triggered.
- D: Closed as a flimsy Three Outside Up
- E: Closed trading higher towards IB high
- F: Traded higher testing IB high without extending to the other side
- G: Extended above IB forming a Neutral Day
- H: Closed as a M30 Hammer, H4 Hammer
GBPNZD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Balancing Market
- Narrative: open sentiment
- Preferred: Play off LTF SD and ADR levels, H4 c‑sup
- Con: No bracket, at the end of a DT, possibility for a reversal here
- 100% correct
How accurate was my assessment of market context? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
Price opened traversing 0.4xASR higher before extending in C to then close as an inverted hammer. Normally not a good pattern to trade off of but since it was an open within value sentiment coupled with nearby H4 c‑sup and ADR 0.5 this was good location for an LTF entry short. D formed a Three Outside Downbefore E took it back up again bouncing off nearby D1 demand.
What was the play of the day?
Balancing Market. H4 c‑sup with nearby ADR 0.5 High, M30 Inverted Hammer, LTF entry on M5 consolidation.
2nd opportunity was a M5 Three Inside Up at D1 c‑dem to go long in E TPO.
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Dead on.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
There were two opportunities but I did not take any. We are nearing the end of the month plus trading from within value is something that I find a bit risky still. Did great on taking notes.
T1
DTTZ: 1st
Entry: M5 consolidation at H4 c‑sup nearby ADR 0.5 high
Profit Margin (ADR or congestion): IB low would have yielded 1.5R
T2
DTTZ: 1st
Entry: M5 Three Inside UP or wait for M15 Bullish Inside Bar at D1/M30 demand, VAL,
Profit Margin (ADR or congestion): Entry off M5 would have yielded 2R at VAH, M15 1.8R
What would a price action exit rule have done?
ABout 1R on the first trade and 1.1R on the second if based on M5, IOf entry was on M5 and I had let M15 guide my trade it would have yielded the 2R
How was SL placement and Sizing?
Great standard SL placement above formation and below the second trade.
What would time-based have done?
Stopped out on the first 1.5R on the 2nd
What could I have done better?
I did well to grow more confident in a somewhat risky trade due to the balancing nature of the market. Also, there was no bracket and hence the market wasn’t balancing for long. Plus a wider value was created at the ‘bottom’ of a DT indicating a possible reversal so longs were favored.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
No trades taken
GOLD
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Balancing Market
- Narrative: Open sentiment
- Preferred: Play off LTF SD and ADR levels, D1/M30 demand at VAL
- Con: Possible H4 DBD
- 100% correct
How accurate was my assessment of market context? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
B formed a bear engulf at VAH and C extended below to return within IB and close as a Hammer (quite the correlated opposite of GBPNZD btw…) I had put in a Buy Limit order 4 pips above the newly formed M5 C‑dem as I was hoping for a pullback. When this didn’t come I let the trade go. Even though this was also a balancing market trading opportunity this particular trade was with the larger timeframe sentiment of the market and thus I found it safer to potentially trade. Alas, order didn’t get triggered.
What was the play of the day?
Balancing Market. D1 c‑dem at VAL, M30 Hammer, LTF entry on M5 Three Outside Up.
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Dead on
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
Yes there was an opportunity but my order didn’t get triggered.
DTTZ: 1st
Entry: Buy Limit order didn’t get triggered. An entry off the close (or M15 Bull engulf) would have yielded about 1R before price started faltering
Profit Margin (ADR or congestion): Heavy congestion due to H4 supply as well as D1 so was probably not the safest trade.
What would a price action exit rule have done?
M15 Three Outside Down would have scratched the trade
How was SL placement and Sizing?
Standard SL placement would have been below the formation
What would time-based have done?
0.7R
What could I have done better?
I did well to try and get a better entry for a better R multiple but did not get triggered.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
No trade taken
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I kinda got a bit tired again…. Not sure what’s going on… will keep tabs on it and try and sleep early again tonight. I have been sleeping deeper though so that should have been good. Will monitor longer.
What did I learn today?
That perhaps in a Balancing Market play I aim for 1R profit targets as the market can quickly reverse in the opposite direction. I will forward-test this principle.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Keep playing the scientist. Coming up with hypotheses and then go out and disprove them. See how I did not say prove them as not to get stuck in a bias. I am here to see if my hypotheses actually hold up. I do not want to ‘force my will’ onto the market (as if that’s even possible).
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
I did great today. I didn’t feel a 100%. Open Inside Value days are always more tricky. Plus the end of the month nearing so trying to preserve capital is more important.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
Fuck yes.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: