13 May How did I trade today? 20210513
Summary: Intuition or Recognition
#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading #dailyreportcard #tradinglifestyle #daytraderlife #grasshoppersanonymous #tradingforex #tradingcommodities #NEXT
Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
Good Pre-market routines
Fair Session PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1
- 1st DTTZ
- IB traded higher and C extended 2 TPOs above before closing as a Bearish Inside Bar within IB. This might just be a reaction off old H4 supply overhead. With electricity potentially getting cut off I am going to take it easy today. Also, price would have to chew its way through LTF demand within IB.
- D closed lower within IB. So did E. An entry off the close of C would sit at 0.8R at the moment. Low initiative activity if you can call it that when price has failed auction.
- 2nd DTTZ
- F closed slightly bullish with LTF faltering at demand. G closed as a Three Outside Up. There was no clear cut way to go long here especially after the failed auction and the expected ‘rotation’ down to IB low which hasn’t completed. I did well to not go short. H4 closed as a Bull Engulf.
- 1st DTTZ
Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal / Mean Reversion
- Narrative: Variation to Hypo 1
- Preferred: price extends to the upside hitting W1 Supply (and fulfilling mean reversion criteria) before forming a strong reversal to failed auction
- Con: Possible D1 bullish narrative
- 100% correct
- Hypo 1 — Return to Value
- Narrative: Open sentiment, possible continuation to D1 narrative
- Preferred: Strong Bullish PA, IB extension up with a sustained auction, preferably a move extending down to value edge before failing auction to new highs.
- Con: H4/D1/W1 Supply overhead.
- 90% correct
How accurate was my assessment of market context? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
I did well to not go off an IB extension up. Price extended slightly in C before reversing and failing auction. When that happened I considered a short but did not like the wide LTF demand I would be trading into. This, combined with a D1 bullish narrative. Then at 2nd DTTZ there was a LTF reversal that traded higher. Price never traded all the way down to IB low.
What was the play of the day?
A Mean Reversion to Return to Value although both unplayable based on current trading rules.
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Yes I was even though Hypo 2 played out first and then Hypo 1.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
I’m gonna say that both opportunities were subpar and am happy that I let them go. I did not feel confident in trading either and thus noticed I did not have the right setups come to fruition to act upon.
What could I have done better?
I feel I did well today. Based on what I saw developing I did not feel comfortable taking a trade due to subpar profit targets. This, and I was kinda in a rush updating my laptop due to possibly losing electricity in my part of the town (there is some maintenance going on somewhere).
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
No trades taken
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
For the most part I did well. I kinda felt a bit rushed as I was stalking a trade but then decided it wasn’t worth it as I was updating my laptop. Then later in the session I got a bit tired again. I wonder why that is as my diet hasn’t changed.
What did I learn today?
That I should trust my gut as I have put in 1000s of hours of screen time I think I know a little bit when my gut says the trade is wrong. Even though I am quite proficient in understanding orderflow and price action I did not want to risk capital for a subpar profit target. I’m glad I didn’t.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Trust my gut. Instincts. Intuition. Or as I like to call it: recognition.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
I did well today. If I would have to say is that I don’t need to be trading. I do fairly well with this even though I have been slightly pushing myself to trade more as there is a significant downtick in number of trades ever since I started trading a bigger account. At the same time my aim is not to just willy-nilly take trades. I just need to do a little more to step out of my comfort zone. I think I am doing well in this regard. No jumps, just step by step.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
I did well today
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: