18 May How did I trade today? 20210518
Summary: Value Rejection Failure
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1
- 1st DTTZ
- D closed above IB and VAH rejecting value. Although trading right into supply I find this a bit of a risky play. E made HHs before closing as an Inverted Hammer (weak failed auction) and F closing as a Three Outside Down (failing auction) although not the most confident.
- A possible good play would have been an LTF entry after price reached above value and hit LTF supply before reversing. Forward-testing the balancing market play. I did not act on it due to price having rejected value prior to it.
- 2nd DTTZ
- It was a continuation to the 1st DTTZ and H4 closed as an Inverted Hammer
- 1st DTTZ
Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Balancing Market
- Narrative: open sentiment
- Preferred: Play off LTF SD and ADR levels
- Con: H4 bear engulf might see continuation down
- 100% correct
How accurate was my assessment of market context? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
Initially it looked as if there was a value rejection up. Price closed above VAH with extending IB as well. This made me think of how I used to call this trade a Value Rejection Failure Play. I will go back through my archives and find more examples. I feel when price fails to find business outside of value there is a higher probability chance for it to reverse. Which makes total sense but I meant it in a way that playing an open inside value setup is probably better when price has first tried to reject value first and then reverses instead of playing off levels from within value. Although that is something I have done before so again… I will check my playbook on this.
What was the play of the day?
A Value Rejection Failure
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Yes, I was. I called it a Balancing Market play but I remembered I used to call it Balancing Market / Value Rejection Failure play before.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
There was an opportunity but I did not take it. Instead I decided to forward-test the premise: Value Rejection Failure play.
What could I have done better?
I did well because I lacked confidence in the play. I decided to forward-test the play. Did well here.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
No trade taken
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I did well here
What did I learn today?
I reaffirmed a playbook by consciously observing a play I have played quite some times before but I wasn’t too clear on before.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Gain confidence through forward-testing plays.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
I did well today
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
Yes, I did
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: