19 May How did I trade today? 20210519
Summary: Trend Continuation right into W1 Supply exhausting ADR
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- In lockdown now
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1
- 1st DTTZ
- W1/D1 Supply popped in C TPO then closed higher just below W1-C‑S 1.96840
- D closed as a sustained auction above IB closing as a Hammer with buying wick testing IB high. H4 Marubozu bullish candle. E formed a poor High then soon after got taken out. Still don’t feel confident trading into a W1 supply. E closed testing IB high as another Hammer
- 2nd DTTZ
- Possible somewhat weak Selling tail in F if F can close down failing auction combined with a 4 TPO structure there could be that reversal I’ve been waiting for. Nope. There was a RBR slightly exhausting ADR.
- G formed a M15 Bear Engulf (not on the hour) and transitioned to M30 Bear Engulf. H took it slightly lower
- 1st DTTZ
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
- Narrative: H4 closed higher, open sentiment, larger timeframe bullish sentiment
- Preferred: Strong Bullish PA with IB extension up, sustained auction exhausting ADR. Otherwise a pull back towards value edge before potentially failing auction and move higher.
- Con: W1 Supply not far away
- 100% correct
How accurate was my assessment of market context? What were the circumstances of the developing narrative? How did they develop according to DTTZ?
I did well on my hypo even though there was a nearby W1 supply the direction was right. IB extension up in C with a sustained auction although price didn’t traverse far.
What was the play of the day?
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Yes I was right on Hypo 1
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
I did not feel comfortable to trade right into W1 supply and thus I let the trade go as it did not give a good profit target.
What could I have done better?
I did well to stay out even though I was eyeing a potential late-sustained auction entry off IB high.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
No trade taken
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I did well here.
What did I learn today?
That I can be right on the outcome but preserving mental capital is important as well. The opportunity as it stands now would not have yielded much.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Follow my process.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
Worry about taking trades. I know when to execute most of the times and I should trust my trading skills to identify good opportunities. If there was indeed an opportunity that I missed I have processes in place to try and catch them next time.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: