20 May How did I trade today? 20210520
Summary: Trust your abilities as well as your judgement
#fintwit #orderflow #daytrading #dailyreportcard #tradinglifestyle #daytraderlife #grasshoppersanonymous #tradingforex #tradingcommodities #NEXT
Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1
- 1st DTTZ
- B closed as a Bullish Inside Bar. C closed as a Doji, D shot up extending over IB testing value before closing below. M15 formed a doji which could go either way. E closed as a sustained auction at value edge. Not convincingly closing within.
- 2nd DTTZ
- There was indeed a sustained auction higher and there is no reversal on the horizon (yet).
- G closed as a Gravestone Doji and I considered going short fading the auction. But with value being accepted and a Poor High I decided against it.
- 1st DTTZ
Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 2 — Value Acceptance
- Narrative: continuation to D1 rally
- Preferred: early acceptance and quick follow-through
- Con: W1 supply
- 70% correct
- Hypo 1 — Return to Value
- Narrative: Open sentiment with reaction off W1 supply and H4 trading lower.
- Preferred: Strong Bearish PA after potentially testing VAL before extending down with a sustained auction. Perhaps a failed auction. Monitor for a potential to hit D1 base demand for further continuation.
- Con: LTF demands in the way as well as H4 VWAP in UT
- 70% correct
What happened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?
Hypo 2 — Value Acceptance
Price was trading mid M30 swing so I was thinking that it would not be a great place to go short. Then IB extended up during D not accepting value yet. Then E closed very slightly within value. With W1 supply above at PPOC I did not want to go long. Price did extend higher before reversing at W1 supply.
What happened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?
Price formed a Gravestone Doji during G so I was looking for M5/M15 combinations to go short. Then I hesitated a bit due to value having been accepted but also because M15 did not entirely close bearish. Even so was followed by a Bull Engulf so I let the trade go. Trade would have yielded 0.3R at trading window close.
What was the play of the day?
A Value Acceptance to Return to Value although the latter in my opinion was the actual play.
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
I was right on the outcome although Hypo 2 played out somewhat before Hypo 1
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
With price trading below value and somewhat near value edge I did not want to trade right into it before accepting. Then the acceptance was quite flimsy and I decided to wait for the potential reversal at W1 supply. This came but not too convincingly so I let the trade go. Will document more in my upcoming post on the missed trade(s)
What could I have done better?
I believe I did well on the first one. Not too bad on the second ‘opportunity’ as there was no clear-cut entry signal. I do have to force myself to be a bit bolder when it comes to taking some buffer trades. I will work on this through doing what I do now. That sounds funny because my goal was to at least take one trade today but I did not take any. I feel I have valid reasons for this so let’s see how tomorrow goes.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
No trades taken
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I did fairly well here even though I was feeling a bit letdown not taking an opportunity. Even though I have to force myself to take trades with subpar profit targets I feel I did well today.
What did I learn today?
I learned that most of the time I am right in my assessment and thus I can take ‘buffer trades’ where I capitalize on a small move for a 0.5–0.8R but targeting 1R. I will work on this and will give myself till the end of the month to prove I can take these. It’s just a slight mindset change as I normally loved jumping in and out of trades whereas now I ‘trained’ myself to wait for better opportunities. I need to find the balance between the two so this will be my main goal going forward.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Focus on obtaining a trade per DTTZ.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
Worry about the outcome. My skills are there. Now I just need to show the results.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
I did okay today
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: