21 May How did I trade today? 20210521
Summary: Going against better judgement… (in this case the open sentiment)
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- Otherwise a Bart Simpson exercise
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Bad Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3
- 1st DTTZ
- IB traded higher. Even though there was a large imbalance at the open I thought to take more risk (as D1 Supply got popped in premarket) and see if there would be a continuation to the H4 rally and D1 bullish sentiment. So I put in a Buy Stop order at 1.97650 ( a few pips above IB high but for some reason (probably spread) I got triggered on a 1 TPO extension above IB. Which I don’t like. I had liked for IB to extend a bit further. Also, I was thinking this is probably not the best trade and am I only taking it to take more trades?!… Ah well in the trade now and it is taking forever for price to make a move (not a good sign for my trades). SL is cutting through the formation slightly but okay as I am expecting momentum.
- C TPO closed as a consolidation with longer selling wick so expecting the trade to go against me.
- D TPO popped (not a good sign either) above IB making HHs which could be a stop run but since we made HHs I will stick with the trade one more TPO to see what happens. Let’s see if the trade has any legs although I don’t like D TPO opening at C TPO’s open (even though it closed trading slightly down)
- D closed above IB so will give it another TPO
- E traversed to IB low taking out my SL ‑1R closing as a Bear Engulf. Put a Sell Limit Order at x.xx50 but then took it off as I got insecure and thought I should wait a little longer for 2nd DTTZ.
- The order would not have hit anyway as price extended below forming a Neutral Day.
- 2nd DTTZ
- G made a Poor Low and pulled back a bit. There was a weak M5 bull engulf and did not want to take it as we also have a poor low. Although with a Neutral Day there could be a bigger chance for price to return higher.
- 1st DTTZ
Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
- Narrative: Open sentiment, W1 supply, Asia traded higher
- Preferred: Strong Bearish PA with IB extension down and sustained auction.
- Con: D1 Bullish sentiment
- 90% correct
What happened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?
Hypo 2: Price moved higher and then extended above IB 1 TPO then 3 more during D. before forming a Bear Engulf in E.
What happened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?
Continuation to 1st DTTZ: G formed a Poor Low with F then pulled back forming a Hammer. Finally took out the Poor Low in H.
What was the play of the day?
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
Yes I was although it was Hypo 2. With the large imbalance at the open I should have gone with the mean reversion play instead.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
There was an opportunity but I had taken the wrong one so got stopped out. Then I decided to not immediately reverse the trade even though it would have panned out. Hindsight is 20/20 huh.
What could I have done better?
I should have gone with my instincts and go with the large imbalance at the open sentiment. This coupled with large time frame supply.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
I felt good about having taken the trade at first. Also, good that I let my exit rule play out even though I was doubting the trade heavily. I managed to commit to the trade. Afterwards, I feel stupid for having taken that trade just to take a trade even though at first I felt good for having taken the trade. I should have waited for the right opportunity.
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I did well here even though I had strong doubts about the trade. Energy-wise I was good.
What did I learn today?
A large imbalance with overhead supply can see a fake out extension before failing auction and extending the opposite direction. Also, a pop of a level (stop run) and having to wait before the move to happen is not a good sign.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Keep the process
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
Worry about one trade. We win or we learn.
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
I did okay…
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: