How did I trade today? 20210526

Sum­ma­ry: Mean Rever­sion to Sin­gle Print Fade (devel­op­ing H4 Inside Bar)

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Bad Ses­sion PECS

Fair Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Bad Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • A trad­ed down with B form­ing an Inside Bar. IBR is only 0.3xASR.
    • Although C TPO formed a Three Out­side Up this has hap­pened a few times over in pre­mar­ket  but was fol­lowed by a con­tin­u­a­tion down. If D extends below IB it will trig­ger my Sell Stop Order in case this trend per­sists. An exten­sion above with the cur­rent huge imbal­ance at the open might be a fake out before con­tin­u­ing down as H4 closed almost on its low in pre­mar­ket. Going short is a bit risky as price is trad­ing above H4 QLo but as D1 QHi got reject­ed there could be a move to D1 QLo but anoth­er con­trary fact is that the trend is still up. I’ll let PA and order­flow guide me. 
    • Although price might be react­ing off H4 QLo
    • So it looks like I was not aligned with the mar­ket nar­ra­tive and the mean rever­sion trade is well on its way and trad­ing at 1.5R now. And it looks like price is too far away from IB edge to jump in on a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. Unless per­haps some TPO struc­ture can be build above IB high
    • E left a sell­ing tail and cur­rent­ly F is test­ing Sin­gle Prints in D and even took out one. Although I find it a bit sus­pi­cious to go short here as there is not much of a TPO structure
    • M15 closed as lit­er­al­ly the tini­est doji ever after that Bear Engulf.
    • Pro­file start­ed tak­ing more sin­gle prints in D and I went short
      • Short 1.93842, SL 1.94142, TP 1.93647 (IB high)
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • F closed as an Inside Bar. pos­si­ble Base. 
    • G pro­ceed­ed down tak­ing out sin­gle prints and I took the trade off at 0.2R
    • Price pro­ceed­ed to move down to IB high, miss­ing it by one TPO which would have made me 0.5R.
      • G closed down as M30 DBD

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?

• Hypo 3 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open Sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA with IB exten­sion up sus­tained auc­tion to VAL
  • Con: H4 Phase 4
  • 90% cor­rect although pos­si­ble lat­er in the ses­sion there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion higher
• Hypo 4 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: vari­a­tion to Hypo 3
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish Rever­sal at VAL, TPO struc­ture, fad­ing the auc­tion or SPF.
  • 90% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

C TPO formed a Three Out­side Up and D burst above IB. A trade off IB exten­sion would have net­ted 2R easily. 

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Then E close as a Inside Bar with longer sell­ing wick. Then F start­ed tak­ing out Sin­gle Prints in D very slow­ly and closed as a pos­si­ble Base after which G formed a DBD miss­ing a move back to IB high by one TPO.

What was the play of the day?

Mean Rever­sion

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

I was ini­tial­ly very wrong about what I thought would be more like­ly. The fact that the open was at a 2.1xASR huge imbal­ance after exhaust­ing ADR. Plus H4 clos­ing near its low made me think there could be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move as it looks like it might have strength. 

How­ev­er, with price reach­ing H4 QLo after hav­ing reject­ed QHi and with the trend being UP. Some reac­tion could have been more prob­a­ble. I will review this more.

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There were two oppor­tu­ni­ties of which I missed the first. The first was the mean rever­sion trade fol­lowed by a Sin­gle Print Fade after price moved high­er to M30 VWAP in DT and formed a ‘stronger’ hammer. 

DTTZ: 2nd (F)

Entry: Sin­gle Print Fade

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): 0.5R at IB high

What would a price action exit rule have done?

0.5R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Not too bad although cut­ting through the wick

What would time-based have done?

There is no time-based exit rule for SPF

What could I have done better?

I could have let the trade go on fur­ther. Although, I felt quite uneasy about being in the trade due to the momen­tum first part of the ses­sion and not hav­ing a TPO struc­ture before going against the move. I did well to take it though and at least banks a lit­tle for the buffer bank. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt good hav­ing tak­ing the trade fol­lowed by a bit of jumpi­ness think­ing I could have just sold the ‘low of the TPO struc­ture’ and price is going to move high­er from here. I start­ed lift­ing the dumb­bells I have next to my desk and decid­ed I had com­mit­ted to the trade and let’s see what it does. 

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I start­ed to get jumpy but I did okay lift­ing some weights. 

What did I learn today?

That an ini­tial burst of momen­tum can start fal­ter­ing and turn around. It’s all in the price action and order flow reading. 

What’s one thing I need to do more often?

Trust myself.

What’s one thing I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about miss­ing a trade. When that first mean rever­sion went off with­out me. I visu­al­ized a poten­tial pull­back for a late-sus­tained auc­tion entry. When it just moved above from IB I let it go. Which was good and I did not chase it. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did okay

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210526

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Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210526

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