01 Jun How did I trade today? 20210601
Summary: Tighter ranges make for different PA combos
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Every trading day I recap my trades, including more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I manage the trade, my emotions and cognitive function? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trader. As always, feel free to reach out to me.
My weekly goal:
- Min. 3 times working out at home + mandatory cardio
- Trading rules
- Be mindful of DTTZs
- Focus on taking ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be taken on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium initiative activity day.
- Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
- M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
- Buffer trades (profit target >1R) are allowed and encouraged
- 13 trades by the end of the month
- No social media / messenger apps / phone calls allowed during the trading window
Good Pre-market routines
Good Session PECS
Good Trade selection
Good Trade sizing or SL placement
Good Trade Execution & Mgmt.
Good Risk Adjusted Returns
Yes Daily review
Muppet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1
- 1st DTTZ
- IB traversed 0.55xASR down closing within value nearly rotating right though but with H4 demand right there there could be some reaction.
- Possible a news report initiated the move as it seems the market is possibly tanking.
- C TPO extended down rotating through value closing below IB somewhat neutral.
- D TPO closed as a Bull Engulf failing auction but due to ranges being tighter than usual the PA cobo switches to H1 dominance. And H1 is showing a Hammer which has potential for a continuation down or at least needs one more bar to complete a PA formation. M15 printed a Bear Engulf.
- E Closed as a Bear Engulf
- 2nd DTTZ
- F closed as a Bullish Inside Bar, H4 Inside Bar with long buying wick, potential for RBR. Due to previous PA and poor low I let it go. Plus I wasn’t stalking the trade and had just come back to my office.
- G closed deeper within IB.
- H closed higher within IB, H1 RBR, H4 Bear Engulf with long buying wick
- 1st DTTZ
- Which hypo played out and how did I hypothesize it playing out? How did it actually play out? What did the profile and price action show?
- Hypo 2 — Value Acceptance
- Narrative: trading right below D1 Supply, open sentiment
- Preferred: early acceptance and quick follow-through
- Con: H4 demand within value
- 100% correct
What happened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?
Price extended 0.56xASR during IB accepting value then extended in C TPO before failing auction and closing as a bull engulf in D. Then E closed as a big bear engulf again probably due to ASR being tighter than ‘normal’. In this case H1 proves to be better for directional cues.
What happened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?
F formed a poor low with C and there was a LTF reversal that transitioned into a M15 Bull Engulf which could have been an entry long.
What was the play of the day?
Value Acceptance to Return to Value
Was I right on the outcome? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?
In a sense it was Hypo 1 that played out although due to having accepted value and rotated through I went with Hypo 2 scenario.
Was there an opportunity and did I take it?
There was no opportunity on the acceptance of value as value was too tight and price had already almost completely rotated through. There was a counter-move opportunity that I failed to take due to 1) not stalking the trade as I was sitting out thinking I needed a H1 close before getting a directional cue. 2) kind of distracted with the AC guy coming over for repairs.
What could I have done better?
Due to the slightly tighter range and thus the shifting in PA combo I think I did well to stay out although I could have taken a shot on that LTF reversal to get my one trade for the day in. Also, today being the first day I did not feel to push things anyway.
How did I feel before, during, and after the trade?
No trade taken
How well did I manage my physical, emotional and cognitive states?
I did well for the most part. I was anxious at first thinking to have to take a trade. Then when I noticed the shift in PA to H1 I decided I have more time to make my assessment and if needed I could decide not to trade. This helped me relax.
What did I learn today?
That when ASR is between 80–90 directional cues in PA shift from M30 to H1. This has been something that I have been actively forward-testing for some time now.
What’s one thing I need to do more often?
Keep following the process.
What’s one thing I need to do less often?
Let outside life interfere with my trading (although today it was out of my control). Sadly, the guy needs to come back tomorrow…
Under the circumstances, did I perform at my best?
I did okay… could have done better.
For my trade plan(s) on this particular day, go here: