How did I trade today? 20210608

Sum­ma­ry: Sys­tem­at­i­cal­ly go through OODA loops

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Good Ses­sion PECS

Good Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 1

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • Price trad­ed low­er with­in val­ue form­ing a DBD test­ing VAL (after test­ing VAH) after com­ing from a rever­sal at D1 C‑sup in premarket. 
    • C cre­at­ed a Bull­ish Inside bar with no IB exten­sion. D formed a Base and E took it higher 
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • F extend­ed IB and went in long for a poten­tial val­ue rejec­tion as per hypo 3. Long 1.96233, SL 1.96033, TP 1.1.96633 (2R) I’ll con­sid­er tak­ing some off at 1R. 
    • Price pulled back to IB edge after mak­ing a HH in G. There is a H1 Three Inside Up that could hold if price can close above IB and bull­ish on M30. 
    • G closed right at IB edge as a Bear­ish Inside Bar but M4 did not close with­in M5 demand there could be anoth­er push. Espe­cial­ly con­sid­er­ing G made a HH and not much of a sell­ing tail. 
    • H trad­ed high­er form­ing a poor high and closed as a M30 con­sol­i­da­tion although bull­ish. H4 closed as a Bull Engulf. Let­ting it go for a lit­tle longer. I TPO has test­ed poor high now.
    • I TPO is test­ing IB edge again. Then took it out by one TPO and closed as a bull­ish ham­mer form­ing a RBR
    • J test­ed IB again and auto­mat­ed cut off took my trade off at ‑0.5R (for­got I still have that on)

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?

• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Trend is up, no sig­nif­i­cant break away from D1 Bear­ish inside Bar or close below D1 QHi, pos­si­ble H4 VWAP BD to CAR ie move high­er to test VWAP after it broke down on H4
  • Pre­ferred: Strong close above VAH coin­cid­ing with a break of IB, sus­tained auc­tion test­ing deep­er in D1 Supply
  • Con: D1 Supply
  • Vari­a­tion: Fad­ing the auc­tion after a poten­tial rever­sal at ADR 0.5 High
  • 90% cor­rect
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up Failure
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, fur­ther bal­anc­ing, D1 c‑sup is above val­ue, with­in range, Pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to W1/D1 bear­ish narrative
  • Pre­ferred: test of D1 C‑sup prefer­ably with­out an exten­sion (oth­er­wise there could be a rejec­tion of val­ue), strong bear­ish PA, pos­si­bly mon­i­tor for an exten­sion down which could make for a val­ue rejec­tion down.
  • Con: Old H4 demand below VAL, slight­ly out­side of range
  • 100% cor­rect (out­side of Trad­ing Window)

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Price trad­ed high­er but did not extend IB

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

IB got extend­ed to the upside tech­ni­cal­ly reject­ing val­ue in F. Price then con­sol­i­dat­ed and formed a Poor High struc­ture before revers­ing in J TPO.

What was the play of the day?

Val­ue Rejec­tion Up Fail­ure. Even though price ini­tial­ly tech­ni­cal­ly reject­ed val­ue it failed to make HHs and reversed back down after my nor­mal trad­ing win­dow closed. 

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was an oppor­tu­ni­ty and I did take it. 

DTTZ: 2nd DTTZ

Entry: IB break up

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): 0.5R at D1 C‑sup

What would a price action exit rule have done?

Auto­mat­ic cut off at ‑0.5R

How was SL place­ment and Sizing?

Good due to the expect­ed momentum

What would time-based have done?

N.A. as I trad­ed well into over­lap noise

What could I have done better?

I think I did well to stick with the trade. Been a long time that I stuck with a trade this long so it felt real­ly good going through the OODA loops systematically. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt okay actu­al­ly. Still do. Hap­py I took the trade and stuck with it mak­ing objec­tive decisions. 

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I did well here focus­ing on OODA loops. 

What did I learn today?

That I can remain calm focus­ing on OODA loop and it did not both­er me the trade went against me as I was fol­low­ing trad­ing rules. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do more often?

Fol­low my process. Keep a clear head going through OODA loops. Keep M30 and pro­file as my guide. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about one trade.

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did well today

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210608

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