How did I trade today? 20210609

Sum­ma­ry: Respect the trad­ing window

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goal: 

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Fair Ses­sion PECS

Fair Trade selection

Good Trade siz­ing or SL placement

Good Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Fair Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • A closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar, B closed as a Bull­ish Inside bar / M15 Bull Engulf, H1 Inside Bar with longer buy­ing wick,
    • C extend­ed one TPO above IB but trad­ing right into W1 Sup­ply I need more con­flu­ence. Prefer­ably a big­ger exten­sion and M30 close above IB tak­ing out M30 sup­ply and Asia ses­sion high, pos­si­ble late-sus­tained auc­tion entry, also have to con­sid­er the round num­ber of 1.97000 is right above. 
    • C closed as a Three Inside Up with slight sell­ing wick clos­ing below Asia high and with­in IB. D cre­at­ed a Poor High then took it out by a few TPOs tak­ing out LTF sup­ply and Asia’s high. Although price closed back down slight­ly above IB but below Asia high. Look­ing like a pos­si­ble low ini­tia­tive sus­tained auc­tion up although still haven’t popped the round num­ber. H1 closed as a RBR still below H4 QHi.
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • E made HH reach­ing for 1.97000 but is now trad­ing with­in IB. If it clos­es as a Bear Engulf I am going to try a short and mon­i­tor for a pos­si­ble Neu­tral day. E closed as a Bear­ish Inside Bar fail­ing auc­tion, M15 Bear Engulf on the hour. Sell­ing tail in E test­ing round num­ber above, W1/D1 sup­ply near­by plus the open sentiment. 
    • Went short on test of new M15 supply
      • Short 1.96889 SL 1.97039 TP 1.96589 (2R)
      • Closed off the trade for 1R

• GOLD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • IB trad­ed high­er, C extend­ed above IB test­ing D1 c‑sup above before clos­ing as a Grave­stone Doji with­in IB. Expec­ta­tion is for more down­side and D com­plet­ed an Evening star for­ma­tion and E made LLs before pulling back in F and G fad­ed the auc­tion back to IB edge.

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 QHi
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down, sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge (more like­ly just to LTF/H4 demand above value)
  • Con: Risky due to D1 bull engulf
  • 80% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Price trad­ed high­er and extend­ed ini­tial­ly in C before mak­ing HH in D and E.

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

E left a sell­ing tail test­ing over­head round num­ber before clos­ing as a Bear­ish Inside Bar fail­ing the auc­tion. Price then con­tin­ued low­er, near­ly test­ing IB low miss­ing by one TPO. 

What was the play of the day?

A mean rever­sion through a failed auction

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was although I did not out­line the ini­tial exten­sion above IB test­ing W1 sup­ply and the round num­ber before fail­ing auction.

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Yes I took the opportunity.

DTTZ: 2nd

Entry: Test of new­ly formed M15 sup­ply through a Bear Engulf. 

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): 1.2R at IB low

What would a price action exit rule have done?

I took the trade off 2 pips above IB low for 1R which was good. 

How was SL place­ment and Siz­ing (Was there a need for scaling)?

Good due to being above the for­ma­tion and with entry at x.xx89 and SL at x.xx03 which could have tech­ni­cal­ly been a bit high­er but it was okay.

What would time-based have done?

N.A.

What could I have done better?

I could have gone into the trade with­out Dee nudg­ing me into it. Although I learned more about failed auc­tions. Did well to take the trade and stick with it till it near­ly hit my prof­it tar­get. Miss­ing by 2 pips is good. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt okay dur­ing the trade actu­al­ly due to the great entry. Then took a lit­tle walk to let the trade go on for at least 15 min­utes to see where it would land. Feel­ing good afterwards. 

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket / Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure
  • Nar­ra­tive: brack­et, open sen­ti­ment, near­by sup­ply above and demand below value
  • Pre­ferred: Exten­sion above or below val­ue hit­ting D1 C‑sup or D1 c‑dem (in case of a move low­er), PA rever­sal fail­ing the auc­tion or per­haps when over-extend­ed a pos­si­bil­i­ty to fade the auction.
  • Con: Trend is up
  • 100% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

IB trad­ed high­er, C extend­ed above IB test­ing D1 c‑sup above before clos­ing as a Grave­stone Doji with­in IB. Expec­ta­tion is for more down­side and D com­plet­ed an Evening star for­ma­tion and E made LLs before pulling back in F and G fad­ed the auc­tion back to IB edge.

What was the play of the day?

Val­ue Rejec­tion Failure

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

The ini­tial move down I could not get a trade in. Then towards the end of the trad­ing win­dow there was an oppor­tu­ni­ty to fade the auc­tion which I missed. I missed it because I wasn’t stalk­ing the trade due to work out­side of trad­ing. I decid­ed to make some calls while wait­ing for a poten­tial set­up. Then when the trad­ing win­dow cut off was in sight I kin­da already decid­ed to not take a trade and call it quits. Take my prof­its for the day and run. That’s when I noticed a poten­tial set­up and just took a screen­shot for my play­book which I will dis­cuss fur­ther at length in my missed trade post. 

What could I have done better?

I could have fuck­ing paid more atten­tion with­in my trad­ing win­dow. Total­ly blew it on this one as it is one of my week­ly goals. I did well ear­li­er dur­ing Lon­don. I won’t make a habit out of it. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

No trade taken

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

Ear­li­er dur­ing Lon­don I was feel­ing quite anx­ious but as the day pro­gressed this got much bet­ter. I did lift some weights but it was most­ly telling myself to focus on my process. The anx­i­ety is not trad­ing-relat­ed but of course it is not con­ducive for good trad­ing per­for­mance. Hav­ing said that I think I did quite well to work with the anx­i­ety focus­ing on a sys­tem­at­ic approach and fol­low­ing my rules.

What did I learn today?

I learned that even if all the con­flu­ences are there we don’t need to wait for a per­fect set­up before tak­ing action. I was stalk­ing the trade dur­ing Lon­don. Had it all lined up and then because M30 did not close as a bear engulf but instead a bear­ish inside bar I almost did not take that trade. That is if it weren’t for Dee to give me a nudge. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do more often?

I did real­ly well on my read­ing of the nar­ra­tive espe­cial­ly dur­ing Lon­don. Although will give myself some props for read­ing NY as well except for the part I neglect­ed towards the end there. Progress not perfection. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do less often?

Con­cern with work, life out­side of trad­ing dur­ing my trad­ing window. 

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

Good dur­ing Lon­don. Not because of the out­come of the trade but because of my read­ing of the nar­ra­tive. Then not so much dur­ing NY due to not stalk­ing the set­up to fade the auction. 

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210609

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NY Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210609

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