How did I trade today? 20210610

10 Jun How did I trade today? 20210610

Sum­ma­ry: Get­ting over my nightowl tendencies

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #dai­lyre­port­card #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #grasshop­per­sanony­mous #trad­ing­forex #trad­ing­com­modi­ties #NEXT

Every trad­ing day I recap my trades, includ­ing more than entries and exits. Why did I take the trade? How did I man­age the trade, my emo­tions and cog­ni­tive func­tion? All the good stuff as well as all the ugly of being a day trad­er. As always, feel free to reach out to me. 

My week­ly goals: 

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Good Pre-mar­ket routines

Fair Ses­sion PECS

Bad Trade selec­tion

BadTrade siz­ing or SL placement

Fair Trade Exe­cu­tion & Mgmt.

Good Risk Adjust­ed Returns

Yes Dai­ly review

Mup­pet meter (1 being best — 5 being worst): 3

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Summary

• GBPNZD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • IB popped LTF/H4 demand and M15 formed a Bull engulf although due to pop­ping of H4 demand this could pos­si­bly just be a reac­tion and the sen­ti­ment is still bear­ish although price is trad­ing at a D1 C‑dem / H4 50MA in UT. ADR exhaus­tion still 23% away. Prefer­ably this should have been clos­er to IB. 
    • B closed slight above Asia low and thus above yesterday’s low as well as D1 demand. 
    • Wait­ed for a retest of IB low and went in short at 1.96187, SL 1.96339, 1.95778
    • Mis­man­aged the posi­tion siz­ing and had to adjust for it. 
    • Price final­ly went against the trade fail­ing the auc­tion and I closed the trade off at a ‑0.4R loss.
  • 2nd DTTZ
    • Then I went long for a failed auc­tion play which did not work out either. Anoth­er ‑0.4R loss due to yet again mis­man­ag­ing the trade siz­ing and SL placement. 

• GOLD
  • 1st DTTZ
    • IB trad­ed 1.94xASR indi­cat­ing poten­tial respon­sive activ­i­ty. Price accept­ed val­ue and rotat­ed through. I am look­ing for a poten­tial failed auc­tion. D trad­ed high­er to IB high. Would need a close in E to extend above and close with­in IB. 
    • E closed as a near Bear Engulf but actu­al­ly is more of a consolidation. 
    • I went short any­one as it coin­cid­ed with a M15 Three Inside Down and pos­si­ble H1 Base after an Inside Bar
    • Short 1890.300, SL 1893.300, TP 1885.736 (1.5R)
    • Want­ed to resize and acci­den­tal­ly closed off the trade at ‑0.6R.

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GBPNZD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 clos­ing down, pos­si­ble H4 phase 3 / 4, 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down (momen­tum) and sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF/H4 demand (and thus tak­ing out yesterday’s low, prefer­ably dur­ing IB), 
  • Con: trad­ing into D1 demand
  • 100% cor­rect
• Hypo 4 — Mean Rever­sion although I should have called it a failed auction
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Demand, test of yesterday’s low
  • Pre­ferred: Move down ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria, strong bull­ish PA IB exten­sion up to val­ue edge
  • Con: pos­si­ble bear­ish medi­um time­frame narrative
  • 70% cor­rect

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

Price extend­ed below IB dur­ing C and then fol­lowed through in D. 

What hap­pened around the 2nd DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

E closed as an Inside Bar and F com­plet­ed a Three Inside Up. 

What was the play of the day?

Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion to Failed Auction

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Yes I was although due to the open sen­ti­ment I had favored a Return to Val­ue before a con­tin­u­a­tion. In hind­sight a return to val­ue would be against the H4 Three Out­side down which is usu­al­ly not a good sign for a con­tin­ued move down after a pullback. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

Yes there was an oppor­tu­ni­ty and yes I did take it. First one was a trend con­tin­u­a­tion that didn’t pan out and failed the auc­tion. The failed auc­tion also did not pan out. Total ‑0.8R. 

T1

DTTZ: 1st

Entry: Late-sus­tained auc­tion entry at test of IB edge 

Prof­it Mar­gin (ADR or con­ges­tion): expect­ing a con­tin­u­a­tion to a pos­si­ble H4 Phase 4 would have pro­vid­ed 2R 

T2

DTTZ: 2nd

Entry test of IB low after a failed auction

Prof­it mar­gin: 1.5 R at IB high

What would a price action exit rule have done?

-1R although through mis­man­age­ment and man­u­al­ly tak­ing off the trade I took a ‑0.4R loss.

How was SL place­ment and Siz­ing (Was there a need for scaling)?

This was good after I scaled down the SL placement. 

What would time-based have done?

SL would have hit ‑1R

What could I have done better?

I did well to take the trade and stick with it to try and let it do it’s thing. Sad­ly the mar­ket did not want to take it any fur­ther and failed the auc­tion against my trade. 

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt good being in a trade. Two even. After the first trade I took a long along the line of the failed auc­tion. This did not work out either. Sum­mer-time trad­ing can do that. 

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GOLD

• Which hypo played out and how did I hypoth­e­size it play­ing out? How did it actu­al­ly play out? What did the pro­file and price action show?
• None

What hap­pened around the 1st DTTZ? Which Hypo played out (if any)?

There was a huge IBR and no exten­sion in my trad­ing win­dow. Although there was a con­sol­i­da­tion and with PNYC there could be a rever­sal and that’s what I took. 

What was the play of the day?

Noth­ing at PNYC

Was I right on the out­come? Which Hypo played out and why was it not Hypo 1 (if any)?

Not with­in my trad­ing win­dow will see tomorrow. 

Was there an oppor­tu­ni­ty and did I take it?

There was no oppor­tu­ni­ty but took one any­way try­ing a short. But I acci­den­tal­ly closed off the trade at ‑0.6R. But the trade would have prob­a­bly stopped out. 

What could I have done better?

I could have wait­ed for a bet­ter set­up which with­in my trad­ing win­dow would have meant no trade.

How did I feel before, dur­ing, and after the trade?

I felt okay actually. 

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How well did I man­age my phys­i­cal, emo­tion­al and cog­ni­tive states?

I felt quite uneasy ear­li­er dur­ing Lon­don but then start­ed feel­ing bet­ter. Felt okay dur­ing NY. 

What did I learn today?

That I am get­ting more com­fort­able tak­ing trades. Now I just need to get bet­ter align­ment with mar­ket narrative. 

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do more often?

Take trades. Make mistakes.

What’s one (or more) thing(s) I need to do less often?

Wor­ry about loss­es. It is what it is. Fol­low the process.

Under the cir­cum­stances, did I per­form at my best?

I did okay…. Hap­py I took some trades.

For my trade plan(s) on this par­tic­u­lar day, go here:

Pre­mar­ket Prep GBPNZD 20210610

NY Pre­mar­ket Prep Gold 20210609

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