Pre-market Prep USDCAD 05042020

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair USDCAD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to make alter­ations to my week­ly trad­ing plan and adjust a cer­tain bias if need be. 

These were the hypo­thet­i­cals in my week­ly trad­ing plan:

1. Swing Rever­sal H4 Sup­ply ZOI
   1. Price action con­firm­ing on H4 reject­ing H4 Sup­ply ZOI
   2. Pos­si­ble short entry around 1.417
   3. Tar­gets 1.411, 1.406, 1.402, extend­ed tar­get 1.396
2. M30 VWAP BD
   1. Price action + MP extend­ing IB con­firm­ing a break below VWAP
   2. Pos­si­ble short around 1.406
   3. Tar­gets 1.402, 1.396
3. Prev. Day High Reversal
   1. M30 Price action + MP extend­ing IB con­firm­ing rejection
   2. Pos­si­ble short around 1.409
   3. Tar­gets 1.406, 1.402, 1.396

Obser­va­tions of the market

• Hypo1 in play cur­rent­ly — accu­ra­cy 80%
• The Asian ses­sion has shown first signs of a pos­si­ble rever­sal at D1/H4 QHi (with­in D1 Sup­ply ZOI 1.40–1.43) by a bear­ish engulf­ing on H1/M30 but price is still above M30/H1 VWAP and upper KC. so unless they get bro­ken I am slight­ly long-biased on the short term.
• H4 Can­dle retraced more than 50% pos­si­ble form­ing a nor­mal for­ma­tion supply
• M30 Bull­ish engulf­ing at upper KC and VWAP (in line with rejec­tion prev. Day high) indi­cat­ing buy­ers are still active­ly try­ing to move price up but buy­ers might be dry­ing up
• Hypo2 not in play (yet) pos­si­bil­i­ty for anoth­er test of D1/H4 QHi (pos­si­bly a dou­ble top) mean­ing Hypo1 is still in play
• Mar­ket Profile
  • AS break above prev day NY VAH and came back to test this level
  • AS trad­ing with­in DVA will need to see how Lon­don opens to get a bet­ter under­stand­ing. If Lon­don can open below AS DVAL (prev day high lev­el) we could see a con­tin­u­a­tion down
  • AS devel­op­ing pro­file looks like a trend day but more TPO struc­ture being made around the mid­dle of the pro­file indi­cat­ing a balancing

Today’s hypo­thet­i­cals

1. Hypo1 re-test of D1/H4 QHi + M30/H1 con­firm­ing a sec­ond rejec­tion (form­ing a dou­ble top). SL would be with­in 25 pips, with tar­get loca­tion exceed­ing 2x R/R
2. Hypo2 M30 VWAP BD. SL would be with­in 25 pips, with tar­get loca­tion exceed­ing 2x R/R
3. Short term con­tin­u­a­tion of M30/H1 uptrend to move with­in D1/H4 QHi (high­er time frame exhaus­tion). SL would be with­in 25 pips, with tar­get loca­tion exceed­ing 2x R/R

Trade will either hit my tar­get or I will close off with time-based stop loss at noon Lon­don time regard­less of where the trade is.