Premarket Prep DAX 20210615

15 Jun Premarket Prep DAX 20210615

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for DAX. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

DAX 2021 Week 24 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price made a new All-time high trad­ing above last week body and range

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Weak D1 Bear Engulf
  • H4-C‑D 15708.62 through H4 Three Inside Up with con­tin­u­a­tion high­er into H4-C‑S 15729.73
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP 3/3
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue Cre­at­ed above the brack­et­ing range
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 12276
  • ASR: 12115
    • 303
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 15805.00 (same as yesterday’s range high)
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 15670.40

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 15708.62 at VAL
  • H4-C‑S 15729.73 with­in val­ue at PPOC
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.05xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed deep­er with­in new­ly formed H4 Supply.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • No Gap Up. Mod­er­ate imbal­ance with an open above val­ue with­in range and being equi­ties longs are def­i­nite­ly favored. How­ev­er, DAX seems to like to make its move dur­ing IB so I won­der if I can cap­i­tal­ize on any move here.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Sus­tained Auction
  • Nar­ra­tive: Weak D1 Bear Engulf, Trend is UP 3/3, price test­ed val­ue dur­ing IB
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up tak­ing out yesterday’s high and H4 sup­ply, pos­si­ble pop of H4 sup­ply cre­at­ing a LTF rever­sal pat­tern and test of IB for a poten­tial late-sus­tained auc­tion entry.
  • Con: Pos­si­ble wide IBR, move already hap­pened dur­ing IB
• Hypo 2 — Failed Auction
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, 
  • Pre­ferred: price fails to find busi­ness above IB not tak­ing out yesterday’s high, PA rever­sal fail­ing auction.
  • Con: Trend is UP 3/3, equities
• Hypo 3 — Auc­tion Fade
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: Price extends fur­ther, build TPO struc­ture, PA rever­sal back to IB edge.
  • Con: Trend is UP 3/3, equities
• Hypo 4 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly accep­tance and quick rotation
  • Con: equi­ties!

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• Not favored in equities
• H4-C‑S 15729.73

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 15708.62
• D1-C‑D 15591.00

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Use SL scal­ing in case the prof­it tar­get for the set­up doesn’t pro­vide 2R for exam­ple for FA or VAA setups
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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