Premarket Prep GBPNZD 06172020

17 Jun Premarket Prep GBPNZD 06172020

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias.

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• D1-C‑S 1.95228 NEW test­ed and reject­ed (coin­cid­ing with VWAP) with a long sell­ing wick how­ev­er the bar closed as a bull engulf cre­at­ing D1-C‑D 1.94691 NEW
• H4 Bear Engulf at H4-C‑S 1.95943 cre­at­ing con­ter­mi­nous H4-C‑S 1.95451 NEW
• Cur­rent­ly price is trad­ing between a nar­row range of S/D on the H4 with H4-C‑S 1.94940 NEW and H4-C‑D 1.94820 NEW Just above H4 QLo
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Mar­ket over­all is still bal­anc­ing although cur­rent­ly price is below yesterday’s val­ue but not far off

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Dai­ly range not bro­ken and with­in W1 doji range

Sen­ti­ment — Neutral

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94940 NEW
• D1-C‑S 1.95228 NEW
• H4-C‑S 1.95605 NEW
• H4-C‑S 1.95943 NEW

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.94820 NEW
• W1-C‑D 1.95330
• D1-C‑D 1.94733 NEW
• D1-C‑D 1.94402

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Exit rules
  • Option 1: Time-based stop
  • Option 2: Tar­get hit (SL (98/4) 25 pips + spread or x2 TP)
  • NO OPTION 3
    • UNLESS a trade is entered with­in 1 hour or half hour before the hard exit rule option 1
• Entry rules
  • Cut off look­ing for trades at 45 min before time-based stop
  • Entry on TPO break of IB
  • Ear­ly entry with price action con­fir­ma­tion at 
    • H4 con­ter­mi­nous
    • Open far from val­ue, antic­i­pat­ing a move back to val­ue using an engulf­ing + sub­se­quent break of TPO
  • Min. X2 R/R
  • Use TPO con­fir­ma­tion or inval­i­da­tion for direc­tion­al deci­sions by look­ing for in con­junc­tion with H4 con­ter­mi­nous lines
    • TPO exten­sion with a sus­tained move (BO from IB)
    • TPO exten­sion with failed auc­tion (return to IB)
    • How this direc­tion of TPO exten­sion relates to Val­ue Area open sentiment
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • Only take 2 trades a day
  • After 4 los­ing trades reduce TP to 1.5R but after 1R can con­sid­er tak­ing profits