Premarket Prep GBPNZD 12112020

11 Dec Premarket Prep GBPNZD 12112020

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #pre­mar­ket­prep #Forex­trad­er #forex #FX #Forexlifestyle #day­trade #trade­plan #trad­ing­plan #trad­ing­forex #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life #GBPNZD 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 50 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Don’t take trades where SL place­ment is sub­op­ti­mal. Instead, reassess for a bet­ter entry if pos­si­ble. Unless there is a planned momen­tum trade.

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing slight­ly below last week’s body form­ing a pos­si­ble W1 DBD if we close like this. Still a lot can hap­pen in a day. 

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Big D1 Bear Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.89847 tak­ing out demands near­ing the next demand at W1-C‑D 1.85922 but no arrival yet
  • H4 Phase 4 arriv­ing clean at H4-C‑D 1.87235 fol­lowed by a con­sol­i­da­tion leav­ing longer buy­ing wicks behind
  • H4 closed down from con­sol­i­da­tion into under­ly­ing demand leav­ing some sup­ply H4-C‑S 1.875 (round num­ber) although low in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Broke down from Brack­et­ing Range
  • ADR: 1689
  • ASR: 1130
    • 29
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.90799
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.87020

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.87235 at yesterday’s low and ADR 0.5 Low
  • ADR exhaus­tion low­er deep­er into H4 demand
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1x ASR
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • Large Imbal­ance. Due to the large imbal­ance a mean rever­sion would be the best prob­a­ble play. How­ev­er, due to H4 clos­ing down into demand (Might be more news dri­ven momen­tum) we might see some con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. As always will let order­flow con­firm or negate any plays. If ADR gets exhaust­ed mov­ing deep­er into demand we could poten­tial­ly see a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Pre­ferred: IB tak­ing out LTF sup­ply. Exten­sion up (momen­tum) with sus­tained auc­tion. Mon­i­tor for fur­ther Val­ue accep­tance. Might see a move down first before a mean rever­sion can take place.
• Hypo 2: Return to value
  • Would coin­cide with a retest of new­ly formed H4 C‑sup. Might even see a pop of round num­ber H4-C‑S 1.875?
  • Pre­ferred: Price action con­firm­ing a rever­sal at VAL. Ib exten­sion up fol­lowed by failed auc­tion and quick through
• Hypo 3: Trend Continuation
  • IB extend­ing down (momen­tum) tak­ing out under­ly­ing demand

Addi­tion­al notes

• Brex­it talks ongo­ing: strong pos­si­bil­i­ty no-deal Brexit
• BOE Gov Bai­ley speaks

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.91275
• H4-C‑S 1.90471
• D1-C‑S 1.89847
• H4-C‑S 1.875

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• MN-C‑D 1.89659
• H4-C‑D 1.87235

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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