Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210216

16 Feb Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210216

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 7 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 Bull Engulf clos­ing above W1 QLo negat­ing any low­er time frame QHi

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 price made HHs not tak­ing out over­head sup­ply (yet)
  • Price took out old H4 sup­ply and cre­at­ed a new one through a H4 Evening star and DBD giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.92376 at D1 QHi
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed react­ing off new­ly formed H4-C‑S 1.92376 and D1 QHi form­ing a Grave­stone Doji (with long sell­ing wick) at H4-C‑D 1.92072
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Wide val­ue area cre­at­ed on top of brack­et­ing range
  • ADR: 1098
  • ASR: 899
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.92638
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91723

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • ADR 0.5 Low at LTF demand below val­ue with­in range
  • LTF sup­plies near VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • Right at VAL
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing mar­ket. Will look to play off near­by ADR and LTF SD levels.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by ADR and LTF SD lev­els, prefer­ably lev­els below due to larg­er time frame bull­ish sentiment
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: H4 con­sol­i­da­tion and break down, M30 DBD (2n drop Bear Engulf)
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly close below VAL, IB exten­sion down
  • Con: Larg­er time frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Vari­a­tion: D1 c‑dem at W1 QLo
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion down fol­lowed by rever­sal pat­tern and failed auction

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.92939
• H4-C‑S 1.92376

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.92072
• D1-C‑D 1.91538
• W1-C‑D 1.91185
• MN-C‑D 1.89745

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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