Bear Market Trader | Premarket Prep GBPNZD - London session
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Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210217

Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210217

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

  • Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • W1 Bull Engulf clos­ing above W1 QLo negat­ing any low­er time frame QHi
    • Moved above last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • D1 clos­ing high­er at D1 200MA and deep­er into D1 QHi after react­ing off W1 QLo
    • H4-C‑D 1.92000 formed through a huge Bull Engulf fol­lowed by some pull­back leav­ing behind a long buy­ing wick.
    • Price con­tin­ued to form a H4 Bear­ish Inside Bar, prob­a­bly a consolidation
    • Pre­mar­ket: H4 RBR
  • Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • 5 day brack­et with val­ue cre­at­ed below
    • ADR: 1109
    • ASR: 936
      • 24
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.93334
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91641


  • Loca­tions
    • H4-C‑S 1.94113 above ADR exhaustion
    • D1-C‑D 1.920000 at VAH
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • LN open
      • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • 1.1xASR
    • Nar­ra­tive
      • Large Imbal­ance. Due to open sen­ti­ment we could see a pull­back to VAH or LTF demand as we have D1-C‑D 1.920000 at VAH this could be the pull­back in the larg­er time­frame bull­ish narrative. 
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 4
  • Hypo 1 — Return to Value
    • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, large imbal­ance at the open
    • Pre­ferred: Pull­back to LTF demand above VAH before con­tin­u­ing high­er, bull­ish price action, sus­tained auc­tion pos­si­ble exhaust­ing ADR
    • Con: Trad­ing right into D1 sup­ply we could see a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day
  • Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
    • Nar­ra­tive: Large imbal­ance at the open
    • Pre­ferred: Asia moved high­er, we could see a slight con­tin­u­a­tion to the move dur­ing the ear­ly hours of the ses­sion before a failed auc­tion and move lower. 
    • Con: Larg­er time frame bull­ish sentiment
  • Hypo 3 — Trend Continuation
    • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment with H4 hav­ing formed a RBR
    • Pre­ferred: Momen­tum move high­er with sus­tained auc­tion exhaust­ing ADR
    • Con: Trad­ing right into D1 sup­ply we could see a low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day

Addi­tion­al notes

  • N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • H4-C‑S 1.94113
  • D1-C‑S 1.92939

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • H4-C‑D 1.92000
  • D1-C‑D 1.91538
  • W1-C‑D 1.91185
  • MN-C‑D 1.89745

Mind­ful Trading

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
    • Focus on my own progress and less on others
    • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
    • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
  • Trad­ing Rules
    • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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