Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210224 - Bear Market Trader
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Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210224

Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210224

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

  • Only take trades accord­ing to a hypo unless there are mul­ti­ple con­di­tions met

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • Price trad­ing above last week’s body. Too ear­ly to say if we could be mak­ing a W1 RBR or Evening Star

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • D1 con­sol­i­da­tion at W1 QLo and D1-C‑D 1.91600 and break high­er test­ing D1-C‑S 1.92730
    • H4 con­sol­i­da­tion below D1 Qhi (no break above yet) with this Asia try­ing to break above but clos­ing below form­ing an Inside Bar with very long sell­ing wick (tak­ing out over­head sup­ply) clos­ing with­in consolidation. 
    • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed as an Inside Bar with long sell­ing wick
  • Mixed Trend: H4 Down, D1 up, W1 down
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • Val­ues with­in over­all range with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in value
    • ADR: 1123
    • ASR: 936
      • 25
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.92761
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91930


  • Loca­tions
    • D1-C‑S 1.92730 above VAH
    • H4-C‑D 1.91865 below VAL and range
    • ADR 0.5 high above D1 C‑sup
    • ADR 0.5 low below H4 C‑dem
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • LN open
      • With­in Value
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • N.A.
    • Nar­ra­tive
      • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Due to the open sen­ti­ment and H4 con­sol­i­da­tion I am more lean­ing towards a bal­anc­ing sen­ti­ment. Although a retrace­ment to new­ly formed D1 c‑dem could mean more down­side espe­cial­ly after a D1 QHi rejec­tion and fail­ure to close above. Larg­er sen­ti­ment is still hint­ing for more upside though so need price action and mar­ket pro­file to guide any trad­ing decisions.
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 4
  • Hypo 1 — Bal­anc­ing Market
    • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR levels. 
    • Con: D1 QHi rejection
  • Hypo 2 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
    • Nar­ra­tive: D1 push high­er with an ear­ly attempt dur­ing Asia (although with much push back pos­si­bly due to fill­ing orders) we could poten­tial­ly see a move high­er in line with larg­er time­frame sentiment.
    • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly Val­ue Rejec­tion with IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction
    • Con: D1 QHi Rejection
  • Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
    • Nar­ra­tive: D1 QHi rejec­tion, H4 DBD poten­tial­ly in the making
    • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly val­ue rejec­tion down IB exten­sion down and sus­tained auction
    • Con: H4 and D1 c‑dems below

Addi­tion­al notes

  • N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • H4-C‑S 1.94113
  • D1-C‑S 1.92730

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • H4-C‑D 1.91865
  • D1-C‑D 1.91600
  • W1-C‑D 1.91185

Mind­ful Trading

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
    • Focus on my own progress and less on others
    • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
    • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
  • Trad­ing Rules
    • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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