Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210304

04 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210304

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 9 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body above W1 QLo

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf clos­ing near D1-C‑S 1.92964 and D1 200MA
  • H4 RBR at H4-C‑D 1.91540 clos­ing well with­in over­head sup­ply H4-C‑S 1.91955 fol­lowed by consolidation
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 trad­ed low­er from consolidation
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping values
  • ADR: 1611
  • ASR: 1186
    • 30
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.92720
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.91108

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • N,A.
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.3xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Bal­ance. With con­tin­ued test­ing of over­head sup­ply and D1 200MA com­bined with larg­er time­frame sen­ti­ment still being bull­ish price could poten­tial­ly break higher. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment and larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment togeth­er with D1 narrative. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action near VAH, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF sup­plies and then clear­ing the H4 sup­ply.  Pos­si­ble test of val­ue with­out accept­ing and then revers­ing pos­si­bly through a failed auc­tion if not with­in IB.
  • Con: Trad­ing right into sup­ply could mean low/medium ini­tia­tive activity.
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Top of the D1 Phase 1 / 3 range as well as H4 clos­er low­er, and close prox­im­i­ty to val­ue edge
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance with quick follow-through
  • Con: H4 demand at VAL

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.92964
• H4-C‑S 1.91955

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.91540
• MN-C‑D 1.89719

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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