Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210309

09 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210309

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 10 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing above last week’s body near­ing W1 50MA in DT coin­cid­ing with W1-C‑S 1.95442

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Bull Engulf with long sell­ing wick that neared D1 Sup­ply End but did not take out sup­ply, trad­ing above D1 200MA
  • H4 Bear Engulf at H4-C‑S 1.94100 (test­ed mul­ti­ple times) with no fol­low-through Instead a RBR clos­ing with­in sup­ply. Price above H4 VWAP in UT
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed high­er from H4-C‑D 1.93783
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT
  • ADR: 1476
  • ASR: 1190
    • 30
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94632
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92743

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.93783 below VAL with­in range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • With­in Value
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • N.A.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Bal­anc­ing Mar­ket. Although with the larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment as well as H4 trad­ing high­er we could final­ly see that D1 sup­ply get tak­en out. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
• Hypo 1 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Up
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, H4 trad­ing high­er above H4 VWAP in UT, sup­ply been test­ed mul­ti­ple times.
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly con­fi­dent close above VAH tak­ing out LTF sup­ply, take out D1 sup­ply, IB exten­sion up sus­tained auc­tion and exhaust­ing ADR
  • Con: Might see a low/medium ini­tia­tive day due to trad­ing right into supply
• Hypo 2 — Bal­anc­ing Market
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open with­in value
  • Pre­ferred: Play off near­by LTF SD and ADR lev­els, H4 C‑dem right below VAL
  • Con: larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment makes short­ing riskier
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Rejec­tion Down
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull ENgulf long sell­ing wick still some sell­ers around these levels
  • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly con­fi­dent close below VAL tak­ing out LTF demands, IB exten­sion down coin­cid­ing with rejec­tion and sus­tained auction.
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. H4 C‑dem right below VAL.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94100 (old)
• D1-C‑S 1.92964

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.93783
• H4-C‑D 1.92350

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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