Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210311

11 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210311

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 10 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Sup­ply still intact with a D1 con­sol­i­da­tion with­in with a few sell­ing wicks
  • H4 demand tak­en out through a pos­si­ble H4 Phase 3, H4 DBD although still some buy­ers around as indi­cat­ed by the long buy­ing wicks. Price broke below H4 VWAP in UT near­ing H4 50MA and H4 demand (H4-C‑D 1.93000) although older.
  • Price trad­ing with­in H4/D1 QHi although W1 QLo was reject­ed earlier. 
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed down at H4-C‑D 1.93000 and H4 50MA
• Trend: H4 UP, D1 DOWN, W1 DOWN
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2 wide over­lap­ping val­ues created.
  • ADR: 1343
  • ASR: 1196
    • 30
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94370
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.93296

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.93000 with­in M30 QLo
  • H4-C‑S 1.94100 (old) at M30 QHi
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.7xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. LN opened at H4-C‑D 1.93000 but closed down with­in H4 demand price might con­tin­ue. Espe­cial­ly when con­sid­er­ing a pos­si­ble H4 Phase to 4 tran­si­tion and D1 con­sol­i­da­tion with long sell­ing wicks poten­tial­ly clos­ing down on the day break­ing down from consolidation. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Val­ue / Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Poten­tial D1 DBD nar­ra­tive, Pos­si­ble H4 phase 4
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish close in IB with exten­sion down tak­ing out H4 demand. Pos­si­ble IB exten­sion up react­ing off M30 VWAP in DT fol­lowed by a failed auction
  • Con: H4 demand, larg­er time­frame bull­ish sentiment
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment not entire­ly ful­fill­ing a mean rever­sion although if price could tra­verse low­er dur­ing IB and form bull­ish price action we could see a mean rever­sion. Price trad­ing with­in M30 QLo. Per­haps an IB exten­sion to failed auction.
  • Pre­ferred: Price tra­vers­ing low­er dur­ing IB with Bull­ish price action clos­ing above M30 QLo fol­lowed by IB exten­sion up and sus­tained auction,
  • Con: Medi­um time­frame bear­ish sentiment.

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94100 (old)
• D1-C‑S 1.92964

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.93000
• H4-C‑D 1.92350

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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