12 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210312
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Only trade the main account
- Focus on time-based exits
- Don’t look at M5 chart unless within the last hour of trading window
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price made a HH on W1 and is currently trading above last week’s body
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- D1 Consolidation with long selling wicks although yesterday closed with a longer buying wick
- Big H4 Three Outside Up at H4 50MA giving H4-C‑D 1.93065 closing within H4 QHi followed by an Inside Bar with no follow-through. Instead a Morning Star
- Mid H4 swing
- Premarket: Price closed higher within H4 QHi continuing on the H4 Morning Star
- Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Down
- Market Profile
- Value created below previous 2 days overlapping value. Price trading in overall range.
- ADR: 1379
- ASR: 1184
- Yesterday’s High 1.94128
- Yesterday’s Low 1.92638
- H4-C‑D 1.93065 within value and strong LTF demand above M30 QLo
- LN open
- Above Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- Moderate to large imbalance. Price consolidated (weak M30 Bear Engulf formed premarket) within LTF supply below H4-C‑S 1.94100 which has been tested many times. H4 formed a Morning Star not continuing down on the Inside Bar that was formed. D1 consolidation continued with yesterday having formed a long buying wick. Price had rejected H4 QHi but with larger timeframe bullish sentiment we could see a move higher as there was no continuation to the rejection and instead we closed back within QHi.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation / Return to Value
- Narrative: larger timeframe bullish sentiment. Open sentiment could facilitate a continuation to the H4 move higher, D1 consolidation possibly a speedbump setting up for a break out
- Preferred: Bullish Price action, IB extension up with a sustained auction. Possible low/medium initiative activity. Taking out LTF supply.
- Con: Consolidating below H4 C‑sup (that was testes multiple times). Trading right into supply.
- Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
- Narrative: Consolidation below H4 C‑sup (although tested many times). Trend is down.
- Preferred: Bearish Price action, IB extension down with a sustained auction. Possible low/medium initiative activity.
- Con: Larger timeframe bullish sentiment. D1 consolidation could be a speedbump as price has not yet really broken out and taken out D1 supply.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- H4-C‑S 1.94100 (old)
- D1-C‑S 1.92964
ZOIs for Possible Long
- H4-C‑D 1.93065
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING