Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210312

12 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210312

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 10 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price made a HH on W1 and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 Con­sol­i­da­tion with long sell­ing wicks although yes­ter­day closed with a longer buy­ing wick
  • Big H4 Three Out­side Up at H4 50MA giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.93065 clos­ing with­in H4 QHi fol­lowed by an Inside Bar with no fol­low-through. Instead a Morn­ing Star
  • Mid H4 swing
  • Pre­mar­ket: Price closed high­er with­in H4 QHi con­tin­u­ing on the H4 Morn­ing Star
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous 2 days over­lap­ping val­ue. Price trad­ing in over­all range.
  • ADR: 1379
  • ASR: 1184
    • 30
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94128
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92638

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.93065 with­in val­ue and strong LTF demand above M30 QLo
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. Price con­sol­i­dat­ed (weak M30 Bear Engulf formed pre­mar­ket) with­in LTF sup­ply below H4-C‑S 1.94100 which has been test­ed many times. H4 formed a Morn­ing Star not con­tin­u­ing down on the Inside Bar that was formed. D1 con­sol­i­da­tion con­tin­ued with yes­ter­day hav­ing formed a long buy­ing wick. Price had reject­ed H4 QHi but with larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment we could see a move high­er as there was no con­tin­u­a­tion to the rejec­tion and instead we closed back with­in QHi. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Open sen­ti­ment could facil­i­tate a con­tin­u­a­tion to the H4 move high­er, D1 con­sol­i­da­tion pos­si­bly a speed­bump set­ting up for a break out
  • Pre­ferred: Bull­ish Price action, IB exten­sion up with a sus­tained auc­tion. Pos­si­ble low/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty. Tak­ing out LTF supply.
  • Con: Con­sol­i­dat­ing below H4 C‑sup (that was testes mul­ti­ple times). Trad­ing right into supply.
• Hypo 2 — Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Con­sol­i­da­tion below H4 C‑sup (although test­ed many times). Trend is down. 
  • Pre­ferred: Bear­ish Price action, IB exten­sion down with a sus­tained auc­tion. Pos­si­ble low/medium ini­tia­tive activity.
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. D1 con­sol­i­da­tion could be a speed­bump as price has not yet real­ly bro­ken out and tak­en out D1 supply. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94100 (old)
• D1-C‑S 1.92964

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.93065

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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