Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210319

19 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210319

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 11 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Trad­ing above last week’s body test­ing W1 50MA again after dip­ping down below. If today clos­es high­er the week would close with a long buy­ing wick. Still a day’s trad­ing left though. 

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 sup­ply test­ed a mul­ti­tude of times with price flat­ten­ing around D1 200MA with yes­ter­day clos­ing above through D1 Bull Engulf giv­ing D1-C‑D 1.93214
  • Huge move away from H4-C‑D 1.92362 clos­ing deep into H4 QHi and H4-C‑S 1.94100 (old and test­ed many times). Fol­lowed by a Ham­mer and DBD
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 DBD with­in H4 QHi
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Down, W1 Down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Wider val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous and price trad­ed higher
  • ADR: 1399
  • ASR: 864
    • 22
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94513
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92429

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1.93214 with­in val­ue (and M30 QLo) at LTF demand at VAL
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. Price trad­ing above W1 QLo (after rejec­tion), with­in D1 QHi (fail­ure to reject to the down­side. Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Asia trad­ed slight­ly low­er so price could decide to fol­low-up on the con­tin­u­a­tion up after yesterday’s D1 Bull Engulf.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bull ENgulf, Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Weak over­head supply.
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF supplies.
  • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3 although could be redis­tri­b­u­tion due to D1 200MA and larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Price at H4 UKC in R.
• Hypo 2 — Mean Rever­sion / Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble D1 Phase 3, H4 DBD
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action, IB exten­sion down with sus­tained auc­tion (or a failed auction)
  • Con: Large LTF demand

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.94100
• D1-C‑S 1.92964

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.93214

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

• Twit­ter
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