23 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210323
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This is my premarket prep for today’s European session for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my weekly trade plan I made here:
The purpose of a premarket prep is to find setups within my weekly trade plan bias
Weekly Focus Points
- Only trade the main account
- Focus on time-based exits
- Don’t look at M5 chart unless within the last hour of trading window
Compared against Weekly Trading Plan
- Price arriving at W1-C‑S 1.95442 and MN-C‑S 1.95078 BASE
Non-conjecture observations of the market
- Price action
- Price took out D1 supply and QHi forming a new swing with price arriving a new D1 QHi after having made a D1 Bull Engulf with long buying wick giving D1-C‑D 1.93561.
- Asia took price higher taking out D1 supply. H4 UKC/VWAP in R with price trading above UKC within H4 QHi nearing W1-C‑S 1.95442 and old H4 supply (first touch since early November)
- Premarket: Price took out W1 supply and exhausted ADR
- Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
- Market Profile
- Value created below previous but still within overall range
- ADR: 1334
- ASR: 887
- Yesterday’s High 1.94267
- Yesterday’s Low 1.92585
- D1-C‑D 1.93561 at VAL
- W1-C‑S 1.95442 at ADR exhaustion high
- LN open
- Above Value, Outside Range
- Open distance to value
- Large Imbalance. Due to the large imbalance in the market and exhaustion of ADR coupled with taking out of W1 supply as well as hitting a Monthly base supply level I believe there could be more upside. Perhaps even a unidirectional day.
- LN open
- Clarity (1–5, 5 being best)
- Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
- Narrative: W1 supply taken out. ADR exhaustion hit. Large Imbalance at the open could be momentum behind the push.
- Preferred: Strong Bullish Price action with IB extension up (momentum) and sustained auction
- Con: Asia traded higher, large imbalance at the open might see some mean reversion as there is still some W1 supply there.
- Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
- Narrative: Open sentiment, W1 supply
- Preferred: Strong Bearish price action with IB extension down.
- Con: Larger time frame bullish sentiment. Trend H4,D1 up.
ZOIs for Possible Shorts
- MN-C‑S 1.95708 BASE (coincides with W1 supply)
ZOIs for Possible Long
- D1-C‑D 1.93561
- Feeling okay
Focus Points for trading development
- Monthly Goals
- Continue tracking my DRC tracking sheet
- Focus on my own progress and less on others
- Feeling okay with NOT trading
- Have ‘quieter’ weekends
- Weekly Goal
- Min. 3 times hitting the gym
- Trading Rules
- Trade from D and upwards unless a possible momentum trade, value acceptance or otherwise.
- Risk Management
- 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
- Capital Preservation during drawdown allows for 1R profit-taking
- 2 consecutive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING