Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210323

23 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210323

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 12 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price arriv­ing at W1-C‑S 1.95442 and MN-C‑S 1.95078 BASE

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price took out D1 sup­ply and QHi form­ing a new swing with price arriv­ing a new D1 QHi after hav­ing made a D1 Bull Engulf with long buy­ing wick giv­ing D1-C‑D 1.93561.
  • Asia took price high­er tak­ing out D1 sup­ply. H4 UKC/VWAP in R with price trad­ing above UKC with­in H4 QHi near­ing W1-C‑S 1.95442 and old H4 sup­ply (first touch since ear­ly November)
  • Pre­mar­ket: Price took out W1 sup­ply and exhaust­ed ADR
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue cre­at­ed below pre­vi­ous but still with­in over­all range
  • ADR: 1334
  • ASR: 887
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.94267
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.92585

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1.93561 at VAL
  • W1-C‑S 1.95442 at ADR exhaus­tion high
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 2.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance. Due to the large imbal­ance in the mar­ket and exhaus­tion of ADR cou­pled with tak­ing out of W1 sup­ply as well as hit­ting a Month­ly base sup­ply lev­el I believe there could be more upside. Per­haps even a uni­di­rec­tion­al day. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: W1 sup­ply tak­en out. ADR exhaus­tion hit. Large Imbal­ance at the open could be momen­tum behind the push. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish Price action with IB exten­sion up (momen­tum) and sus­tained auction
  • Con: Asia trad­ed high­er, large imbal­ance at the open might see some mean rever­sion as there is still some W1 sup­ply there. 
• Hypo 2 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, W1 supply
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish price action with IB exten­sion down.
  • Con: Larg­er time frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment. Trend H4,D1 up. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• N.A.

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.95708 BASE (coin­cides with W1 supply)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.93561

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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