Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210324

24 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210324

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 12 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price took out W1 Sup­ply try­ing to break out from W1 50MA (still uncon­firmed as the week is not yet over), cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in W1-C‑S 1.95321
• Price has reached a Month­ly Sup­ply Base lev­el, near­ing MN-C‑S 1.97300

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Price reached clean D1-C‑S 1.96738 below MN sup­ply, trad­ing with­in D1 QHi (very wide)
  • H4 Phase 2 through RBR giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.95620 BASE and nother base too high up in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve
  • Pre­mar­ket: H4 closed as an Inside Bar with buy­ing wick
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed above the over­all range
  • ADR: 1437
  • ASR: 888
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96687
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94168

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑D 1.95620 BASE with­in value
  • LTF demand at VAH
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.6xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. Open right below D1-C‑S 1.96738 and fair­ly close to VAH. Although larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, price might try and reverse at the clean arrival of D1 C‑sup. Mod­er­ate imbal­ance indi­cat­ed there might be a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move before the short-term rever­sal happens. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 3
• Hypo 1 —  Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, H4 base demand with­in val­ue might not want to get touched and thus LTF demand at VAH might hold as a bounce point.
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish Price action with IB exten­sion up (momen­tum, might be less like­ly), sus­tained auc­tion. A pos­si­ble could also be a test of val­ue below with­out clos­ing with­in, into fail­ing auc­tion and move high­er form­ing a Neu­tral Day.
  • Con: clean arrival at D1 C‑sup
• Hypo 2 —  Respon­sive Activity
  • Nar­ra­tive: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment being squeezed at a D1 sup­ply lev­el, there might be some con­sol­i­da­tion before any fur­ther advancement. 
• Hypo 3 — Val­ue Accep­tance / Swing Reversal
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Swing Rever­sal, D1 c‑sup
  • Pre­ferred: Price tak­ing out LTF demand, accept­ing val­ue with rota­tion hit­ting H4 base lev­el indi­cat­ing a pos­si­ble fur­ther con­tin­u­a­tion down. 
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame bull­ish sen­ti­ment, fur­ther LTF demand at VAL as well. 

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97300
• D1-C‑S 1.96738
• MN-C‑S 1.95708 BASE (coin­cides with W1 supply)
• W1-C‑S 1.95321

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95620 BASE
• D1-C‑D 1.93561

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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