Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210326

26 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210326

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 12 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing deep­er with­in W1-C‑S 1.95321 after hav­ing hit MN-C‑S 1.95708 BASE lev­el arriv­ing at MN-C‑S 1.97300

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 RBR formed giv­ing D1-C‑D 1.96432 BASE
  • H4 Bull Engulf and con­tin­u­a­tion high­er at D1 base demand lev­el, con­sol­i­da­tion at MN-C‑S 1.97300
• Pre­mar­ket
  • H4 DBD at MN c‑sup
• Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 down
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: the trend is up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • 2‑day over­lap­ping values
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1421
  • ASR: 893
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97670
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96055

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑D 1.96432 BASE with­in val­ue at PPOC
  • LTF demand with­in range above val­ue, pos­si­bly a good bounce point due to under­ly­ing D1 base level
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.5xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance. Open sen­ti­ment indi­cates a pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion although long­ing right into sup­ply is not the best espe­cial­ly after a clean arrival. 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, LTF demand above VAH with D1 base demand lev­el with­in value
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bull­ish price action with exten­sion up, sus­tained auction.
  • Con: MN c‑sup, H4 DBD
• Hypo 2 — Swing Rever­sal (uncon­firmed swing) / Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: Price hit­ting MN sup­ply lev­el, Fri­day prof­it-tak­ing, D1 supply
  • Pre­ferred: Strong bear­ish price action (although prob­a­bly not as strong, or price can be slow due to FPT). IB exten­sion down.
  • Con: Lots of demand with­in value

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• MN-C‑S 1.97300
• D1-C‑S 1.96738
• MN-C‑S 1.95708 BASE (coin­cides with W1-C‑S 1.95321)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.96432 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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