Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210329 - Bear Market Trader
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Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210329

Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210329

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

  • Only trade the main account
  • Focus on time-based exits
  • Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • Price trad­ing deep with­in W1 sup­ply, near­ing W1 Sup­ply End 1.98047
  • Cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • D1 con­sol­i­da­tion high with­in D1 QHi (wide)
    • Pos­si­ble H4 phase 3 or slow-down. New demand cre­at­ed just below MN-C‑S 1.97300 giv­ing H4-C‑D 1.97183
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • Closed as a H4 RBR clos­ing below H4 supply
  • Trend: H4 up, D1 up, W1 up
    • Pre­vail­ing trend: trend is up
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • Val­ue cre­at­ed above the previous
  • Dai­ly Range
    • ADR: 1269
    • ASR: 875
      • 220
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97512
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96836


  • Loca­tions
    • H4-C‑D 1.97183 with­in value
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • LN open
      • Above Val­ue, With­in Range
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • 0.1xASR
    • Nar­ra­tive
      • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Price has arrived at larg­er time­frame sup­ply how­ev­er medi­um time­frame plus open sen­ti­ment show a poten­tial for a lit­tle more upside before con­sid­er­ing a rever­sal. W1 sup­ply is still intact although price is near­ing the end. 
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 3
  • Hypo 1 — Return to Value
    • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, medi­um time­frame narrative 
    • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish price action, IB exten­sion up with a sus­tained auc­tion tak­ing out LTF sup­ply (coin­cid­ing with tak­ing out M30 Q point). Mon­i­tor for a take out of W1 Sup­ply End 1.98047
    • Con: Bear­ish Inside Bar on D1
  • Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
    • Nar­ra­tive: Open Sen­ti­ment, arrival at larg­er time­frame supply
    • Pre­ferred: Ear­ly bear­ish price action accept­ing val­ue, quick follow-through
    • Con: new H4 demand with­in val­ue (although pos­si­bly too high on dis­tri­b­u­tion curve), not much prof­it target.
  • Hypo 3 — Vari­a­tion to 1
    • Fail­ure to take out W1 sup­ply, TPO struc­ture build and price action con­firm­ing a reversal.

Addi­tion­al notes

  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect
  • End of the month

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • MN-C‑S 1.97300
  • D1-C‑S 1.96738
  • MN-C‑S 1.95708 BASE (coin­cides with W1-C‑S 1.95321)

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • H4-C‑D 1.97183
  • D1-C‑D 1.96432 BASE

Mind­ful Trading

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
    • Focus on my own progress and less on others
    • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
    • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
  • Trad­ing Rules
    • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING


Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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