Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210330

30 Mar Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210330

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 13 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Only trade the main account
• Focus on time-based exits
• Don’t look at M5 chart unless with­in the last hour of trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• W1 sup­ply got tak­en out
• No imme­di­ate W1 sup­ply nearby
• Price react­ing of MN-C‑S 1.97300

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 sup­ply got tak­en out, then price closed as a Bear Engulf with sell­ing wick (giv­ing D1-C‑S 1.97044) after the first touch of D1 QHi and D1-C‑S 1.98138 return­ing to D1-C‑D 1.96432 BASE
  • H4 ham­mer with Bear Engulf at MN c‑sup with con­tin­u­a­tion down, pos­si­ble H4 Phase 4
  • H4 VWAP in UT BD (no CAR yet), near­ing H4 50MA in UT
• Pre­mar­ket
  • H4 Inside Bar at H4 50MA in UT
• Trend: H4 down, D1 up, W1 up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up although hav­ing hit a larg­er time­frame sup­ply zone there might be a rever­sal coming. 
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ue was cre­at­ed above the pre­vi­ous one then price trad­ed much lower
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1230
  • ASR: 919
    • 23
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.98221
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96334

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • D1-C‑S 1.97044 near VAL 
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.1xASR
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large imbal­ance. Due to the open sen­ti­ment price could see some kind of mean rever­sion (H4 VWAP BD to CAR) although with H4 Inside bar being some­what neu­tral there could just as well be a continuation 
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, H4 50MA in UT, D1 base demand level
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish Price action, IB exten­sion up with sus­tained auction
  • Con: Pos­si­ble H4 phase 4, D1 bear engulf
• Hypo 2 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: D1 Bear Engulf c‑sup at VAL, pos­si­ble H4 phase 4
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up with price action rever­sal, pos­si­ble sin­gle print fade or failed auction. 
  • Con: N.A.

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect
• End of the month — extra caution

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• D1-C‑S 1.97044
• W1-C‑S 1.95321

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• D1-C‑D 1.96432 BASE (HIT)

Mind­ful Trading

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • Con­tin­ue track­ing my DRC track­ing sheet
  • Focus on my own progress and less on others
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym
• Trad­ing Rules
  • Trade from D and upwards unless a pos­si­ble momen­tum trade, val­ue accep­tance or otherwise. 
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • 3 trades 1% risk, 3rd trade only if first 2 worked out
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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