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Bear Market Trader | Premarket Prep GBPNZD - London session
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Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210513

Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210513

#fin­twit #order­flow #day­trad­ing #pre­mar­ket­prep #GBPNZD #Forex­trad­er #forex #FX #Forexlifestyle #day­trade #trade­plan #trad­ing­plan #trad­ing­forex #trad­inglifestyle #day­trader­life 

This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

  • Price moved up from W1 QLo, W1 VWAP, cre­at­ing W1-C‑D 1.92818, with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing above last week’s range arriv­ing at W1-C‑S 1.97330 (with some reac­tion at the moment but will need a close)

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

  • Price action
    • D1 Ral­ly to D1 UKC in R coin­cid­ing with D1/W1 sup­ply clos­ing with­in D1 QHi
    • Price arrived at H4 QHi (slight­ly with­in D1 QHi) and start­ed react­ing through a DBD for­ma­tion cre­at­ing some sup­ply giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.96286 (although high in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve)
  • Trend: H4 Up, D1 Down, W1 Up
    • Pre­vail­ing trend: Mixed Trend
  • Mar­ket Profile
    • Val­ue in UT
  • Dai­ly Range
    • ADR: 1309
    • ASR: 920
      • 230
    • Day
      • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.96690
      • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.94527

Sen­ti­ment

  • Loca­tions
  • Sen­ti­ment
    • LN open
      • Above Val­ue, Out­side Range
    • Open dis­tance to value
      • 0.4xASR
    • Pre­mar­ket
      • H4 pull­back clos­ing to slight­ly below D1 QHi after react­ing off H4 QHi
    • Nar­ra­tive
      • Mod­er­ate to large imbal­ance due to open slight­ly out­side range. Could go either way. H4 and W1 sup­ply and H4 price mov­ing down could see a con­tin­u­a­tion down although due to D1 clos­ing near its high there could still be buy­ers around these lev­els. Hav­ing said that price has reached D1 UKC in R. Asia trad­ed side­ways and Franky Fake out took it down with­out tak­ing out LTF demand. 
  • Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
    • 4
  • Hypo 1 — Return to Val­ue / Trend Continuation
    • Nar­ra­tive: Open sen­ti­ment, pos­si­ble con­tin­u­a­tion to D1 narrative
    • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA, IB exten­sion up with a sus­tained auc­tion, prefer­ably a move extend­ing down to val­ue edge before fail­ing auc­tion to new highs.
    • Con: H4/D1/W1 Sup­ply overhead. 
  • Hypo 2 — Swing Rever­sal / Mean Reversion
    • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
    • Pre­ferred: price extends to the upside hit­ting W1 Sup­ply (and ful­fill­ing mean rever­sion cri­te­ria) before form­ing a strong rever­sal to failed auction
    • Con: Pos­si­ble D1 bull­ish narrative
  • Hypo 3 — Respon­sive Activity
    • Nar­ra­tive: A breather in the mar­ket after a ral­ly and hit­ting a key lev­el of supply

Addi­tion­al notes

  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect
  • Might lose elec­tric­i­ty today due to main­te­nance to pow­er supply

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

  • MN-C‑S 1.97330
  • W1-C‑S 1.96840
  • H4-C‑S 1.96286

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

  • H4-C‑D 1.94256
  • W1-C‑D 1.92819

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

  • Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

  • Month­ly Goals
    • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
    • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
    • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
  • Week­ly Goal
    • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
    • Trad­ing rules
      • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
      • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
        • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
  • Risk Man­age­ment
    • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
    • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
    • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

T3chAddict
t3chaddict@bearmarkettrader.com

Day trader. Tech geek. Sim racer/Pilot.

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