Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210527

27 May Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210527

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 21 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • In lock­down currently
• Trad­ing rules
  • 1 trade per day min­i­mum (unless I missed the 1st DTTZ and the 2nd DTTZ is a con­tin­u­a­tion to the first)
    • 1R tar­gets allowed if con­di­tions are less than opti­mal (buffer trades allow for 0.5–0.8R profit-taking)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
    • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing below last week’s body and range at the bot­tom of the Month­ly body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • D1 closed down in a Phase 4 not hav­ing reached D1-C‑D 1.92400
  • Price left a lit­tle buy­ing wick and is cur­rent­ly trad­ing with­in its range
  • H4 cre­at­ed some demand above H4 QLo through a pos­si­ble Phase 1 or 3
• Trend: H4 Down, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is up
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in DT
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1213
  • ASR: 941
    • 24
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.95867
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.93364

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.93707 at VAL
  • W1-C‑D 1.92794 at ADR exhaus­tion Low
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, With­in Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 0.24xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 closed as an invert­ed ham­mer almost tak­ing out H4 demand thena t the open this got tak­en out.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Mod­er­ate Imbal­ance. Open with­in range after tak­ing out a H4 demand could mean a con­tin­u­a­tion to the move. Although trad­ing at H4 QLo there could be a push high­er. If there is an accep­tance of val­ue it would mean a shift in sen­ti­ment from bear­ish to bullish.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Trend Con­tin­u­a­tion / Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: pos­si­ble H4 phase 3, Open sen­ti­ment, H4 Bear Engulf and test of new Sup­ply giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.93707 and close down. LN open tak­ing out H4 demand. 
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, Pos­si­ble re-test of val­ue edge, IB exten­sion down, Sus­tained auc­tion to W1 demand (0.6xASR below), D1 demand (1xASR below).
  • Con: trad­ing at H4 QLo
• Hypo 2 — Val­ue Acceptance
  • Nar­ra­tive: open sen­ti­ment trad­ing at H4 QLo, pos­si­ble H4 phase 1
  • Pre­ferred: ear­ly accep­tance of val­ue with quick follow-through
  • Con: LTF sup­plies with­in val­ue as well as new­ly formed H4-C‑S 1.93707
• Hypo 3 — Swing Rever­sal at W1D1
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA at D1 demand with TPO struc­ture or fad­ing the auc­tion, Sin­gle Print Fade. 
  • Con: ADR exhaus­tion in the way

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.93707

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• W1-C‑D 1.92794
• D1-C‑D 1.92400

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Feel­ing okay with NOT trading
  • Have ‘qui­eter’ weekends
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times hit­ting the gym + manda­to­ry cardio
  • Trad­ing rules
    • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
    • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
      • Oth­er­wise a Bart Simp­son exercise
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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