Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210607

07 Jun Premarket Prep GBPNZD 20210607

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This is my pre­mar­ket prep for today’s Euro­pean ses­sion for the Forex pair GBPNZD. This prep builds off of my week­ly trade plan I made here:

GBPNZD Week 23 Trad­ing Plan

The pur­pose of a pre­mar­ket prep is to find setups with­in my week­ly trade plan bias

Week­ly Focus Points

• Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Trad­ing rules
  • Focus on tak­ing ONE trade a day. If I missed the first DTTZ then a trade needs to be tak­en on the 2nd DTTZ unless there is a high/medium ini­tia­tive activ­i­ty day.
  • Only price-action based exit rules (or if hit time stop comes earlier)
  • M15/M30 entries and exits at 1st DTTZ, M5 entries and exits at 2nd DTTZ
  • Buffer trades (prof­it tar­get >1R) are allowed and encouraged
  • 13 trades by the end of the month
• No social media / mes­sen­ger apps / phone calls allowed dur­ing the trad­ing window

Com­pared against Week­ly Trad­ing Plan

• Price trad­ing with­in last week’s body

Non-con­jec­ture obser­va­tions of the market

• Price action
  • Slight con­tin­u­a­tion on D1 after the Bear­ish Inside Bar giv­ing D1-H4-C‑S 1.96312
  • H4 Bear Engulf giv­ing H4-C‑S 1.97125 with con­tin­u­a­tion down clos­ing below H4 QHi still trad­ing with­in D1 QHi
  • H4-C‑S 1.96312 cre­at­ed (although low in dis­tri­b­u­tion curve)
  • Pos­si­ble H4 Phase4
• Trend: H4 Up, D1 Up, W1 Up
  • Pre­vail­ing trend: Trend is UP
• Mar­ket Profile
  • Val­ues in UT with price cur­rent­ly trad­ing below
• Dai­ly Range
  • ADR: 1272
  • ASR: 840
    • 21
  • Day
    • Yes­ter­day’s High 1.97817
    • Yes­ter­day’s Low 1.96229

Sen­ti­ment

• Loca­tions
  • H4-C‑S 1.97125 at VAL with­in range
• Sen­ti­ment
  • LN open
    • Below Val­ue, Out­side Range
  • Open dis­tance to value
    • 1.37xASR
  • Pre­mar­ket
    • H4 demand tak­en out in line with Phase 4.
  • Nar­ra­tive
    • Large Imbal­ance at the open con­ducive to a mean rever­sion. Although with 1.37xASR there could be strength behind the move as H4 seems to be in Phase 4 and a pos­si­ble D1 DBD in the making.
• Clar­i­ty (1–5, 5 being best)
  • 4
• Hypo 1 — Mean Reversion
  • Nar­ra­tive: Open sentiment
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bull­ish PA extend­ing above IB, sus­tained auc­tion to val­ue edge
  • Con: Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 4, pos­si­ble D1 DBD in the making
• Hypo 2 — Trend Continuation
  • Nar­ra­tive: Pos­si­ble H4 Phase 4, pos­si­ble D1 DBD in the making
  • Pre­ferred: Strong Bear­ish PA, IB exten­sion down, 
  • Con: H4 demand near­by, Larg­er time­frame slight­ly bull­ish sentiment
• Hypo 3 — Return to Value
  • Nar­ra­tive: Vari­a­tion to Hypo 1, W1/H4 sup­ply and H4 QHi below VAL
  • Pre­ferred: IB exten­sion up to LTF demand at W1/H4 Sup­ply lev­els, strong bear­ish PA, pos­si­ble TPO struc­ture or Sin­gle Print Fade, mon­i­tor for a failed auction
  • Con: Larg­er time­frame slight­ly bull­ish sentiment

Addi­tion­al notes

• Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion Rule in effect

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Shorts

• H4-C‑S 1.97125
• W1-C‑S 1.96876
• D1-H4-C‑S 1.96312

ZOIs for Pos­si­ble Long

• H4-C‑D 1.95738
• D1-C‑D 1.95239

Mind­ful Trad­ing (lack of sleep?)

• Feel­ing okay

Focus Points for trad­ing development

• Month­ly Goals
  • No momen­tum trades on Non-Farm Fridays
  • Total of 13 trades by the end of the month
• Week­ly Goal
  • Min. 3 times work­ing out at home + manda­to­ry cardio
• Risk Man­age­ment
  • With­out forc­ing a trade: aim to take 1 trade a day, if pos­si­ble 2. 
  • Cap­i­tal Preser­va­tion dur­ing draw­down allows for 1R profit-taking
  • 2 con­sec­u­tive days of lack of sleep = NO TRADING

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